More Mihm stats

Someone posted in the thread for the prior message:

Home 11.8/7.8/1.8
Road 7.6/5.5/1.1

On the road he averaged about his career average. At home, he seems to play inspired ball.

I then added:

Also, I think Mihm had a lot of conditioning problems last year. Check out this:
0 Days Rest - 21.1 mpg, 7.9 ppg on .441 shooting, 5.3 rpg, 1.19 bpg
1 Day Rest - 25.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg on .512 shooting, 6.9 rpg, 1.45 bpg
2+ Days Rest - 27.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg on .553 shooting, 7.5 rpg, 1.65 bpg

If he could just play every game like he had 2 or more days of rest, we would be very happy with him at center.

Mihm compared to other WC centers

I wrote this on 8/12 (Link)
I have seen several posters say that Chris Mihm isn't up to being a starting center and that he should be a back up. I think that he's an average center who doesn't really hurt (or help) the team.

To test my theory, I pulled the PER stats from 82games.com and the difference in PER stats for each of the starting centers in the Western Conference. As I expected, Mihm comes out in the middle of the WC centers:
Phoenix - Amare Stoudemire (29.2/+11.2)
Houston - Yao Ming (24.9/+10.3)
Sacramento - Brad Miller (22.0/+4.7)
Utah - Mehmet Okur (20.2/+5.4)
Denver - Marcus Camby (19.3/+3.0)
Seattle - Danny Fortson (19.1/+4.2)
Dallas - Erick Dampier (16.6/+1.0)
LA Lakers - Chris Mihm (16.2/+0.8)
San Antonio - Nazr Mohammed (15.8/-3.0)
Memphis - Lorenzen Wright (15.4/-0.7)
LA Clippers - Chris Kaman (14.1/-2.2)
Golden State - Adonal Foyle (13.6/-3.5)
New Orleans - Jamaal Magloire (13.5/-2.0) *Injuried much of season
Minnesota - Michael Olowokandi (11.3/-2.0)
Portland - Theo Ratliff (11.2/-4.8)

Laker holes and how they are doing on filling them

I wrote this on 8/4 (Link)
At 82Games.com, each player is given a rating (PER) for he did offensively at each position he played, a rating for how his man did while he was in there, and the net difference between the two. Looking at the net PER, you can see the holes Mitch needed to fill this offseason:

PG -6.2 (Atkins -4.7, Brown -9.6)
SG +5.0 (Bryant +9.6, Butler +0.8, Vujacic -10.6)
SF -3.5 (Butler -2.9, Jones -5.7, Odom -0.6)
PF -0.9 (Odom +1.6, Cook -1.0, Walton -6.1, Jones -3.6)
C  -3.0 (Mihm +0.8, Grant -7.5, Cook -0.7, Medvedenko -2.1)

(The players are listed in order of minutes played at the position)

The Lakers needed:
A better starting PG
A better back up PG
A better back up SG
A better starting SF
A better back up SF (not sure on this, as I think Jones played better than net PER indicates)
A better back up PF (but not too much)
A better back up C

The Lakers drafted Andrew Bynum, Ronny Turiaf and Von Wafer. They also picked up Smush Parker as a free agent for the SPL. Based on the SPL, Bynum will help with the back up C, but he is a project and it will be at least next year before he can significantly contribute. Based on the SPL, Turiaf appeared to be the back up PF we need, but then he was diagnosed with heart problems. Based upon the SPL, Wafer appears to be the back up SG we need and Parker may be the back up PG we need.

Mitch then traded Butler and Atkins to Washington for Kwame Brown and a player to be cut later. With Brown at PF, we can slide Odom down to SF. Also, Kwame can play some C, so with Bynum the back up C position should be covered.

Now, Mitch is trying to sign Derek Anderson to the MLE to be our starting PG. If that happens, then Mitch will have filled almost all of his holes:
Starting PG - Derek Anderson
Back up PG - Smush Parker
Back up SG - Von Wafer, though hopefully Sasha Vujacic will play better
Starting SF - Lamar Odom
Back up SF - (not sure a change is needed)
Back up PF - Maybe Ronny Turiaf next year
Back up C - Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum

On the SF, I am not sure that a change is needed and given all of the players the Lakers have that can play back up SF, hopefully one of them will step up to playing well there. Parker is iffy as the back up PG and the Lakers may pick up someone else, though I am not wild about the potential pick ups. The next biggest need to fill is back up PF, but as Cook almost broken even and he should be better this year, that isn't a pressing need.

At the start of the off-season, I was all for Mitch trading Divac, Medvedenko, George and/or the Miami pick to fill the holes in the Lakers roster. Now, Mitch has filled almost all the holes without moving them. I can see moving them if a good deal comes along, but I wouldn't be disappointed if Mitch doesn't trade them.

More Bill Simmons/BSPN stupidity

I wrote this on 8/4 (Link)
Bill Simmons at ESPN (Link) wrote:

White Chocolate is one of those guys who couldn't be redeemed in any other situation but Miami -- he's a head case, doesn't respect his coaches, takes terrible shots and butts heads with the media ... but the old Jordan/Rodman Corollary applies here. In other words, if you have the right alpha dog in place, even the biggest head case falls into line. Shaq is probably the smartest superstar in the league -- he knows what Williams could give this team (a fast break, some dribble-and-dishes, high assist/turnover ratio, some excitement) and will probably be legally adopting him by January.

Point guard who is head case and has problems getting along with his coach - sounds a lot like Nick Van Exel. Of course, you remember how well alpha dog Shaq handled him - he forced Nick's trade to Denver.

A response to someone who wants to trade Slava, Cook and George

I wrote this on 8/4 (Link)
OK, if these guys are as bad as you say, why would any team trade us better players for them? You have to trade talent to get talent. It would be one thing if the Lakers were willing to trade an expiring contract for someone with 4 years left on their contract, but they aren't interested in any players with contracts longer than 2 years.

Slava - IMHO he has the lowest basketball IQ on the squad, which negates his triangle experience. He only makes $3 mil, so to me its not a big deal whether he is gone or just deep on the bench.

Cook - his game may not be what you look for in a PF, but it is going to be hard to find someone who can contribute as much for his salary ($865K). I don't think he get much playing time this year because I think Odom and Jones will get time at back up PF. I wouldn't worry about him.

George - I would prefer to get more production out of a player earning $5 mil, but he has triangle experience and is the best SF defender. I think he is of more value to the Lakers then he is to other teams.

On the Celtics' Blount and Banks

I wrote this on 8/4 (Link) in a thread about the rumor that the Celtics' Blount and Banks were available as a package for expiring contracts
Blount retired on the job after getting his big contract and got 3 DNP-CD's in the Celtics' seven game playoff series. His contract runs for 5 more years. He has got a 15% trade kicker in his contract that would raise his salary for this year to $6.325 mil and his salary in 2009/10 to $9.16 mil.

Banks is a short SG who is a defensive marvel, quick as can be, can't shoot well and who happens to get time at the PG position. He played fewer minutes last year than he did his rookie year. Unless his game improves dramatically, he is at best a back up PG and more likely out of the league in a few years.

Why, oh why, would the Lakers be willing to give up their dream of getting a big name FA in 2007 for these guys?

Someone challenged my assertion that Banks is likely out of the league in the few years, so I added:
Statistically, Banks and Tierre Brown are extremely close:
Tierre
14.03 mpg, 4.38 ppg, 2.04 apg, 0.97 to, 2.10 A-to-T, .356 FG, .361 3pt

Banks
14.14 mpg, 4.59 ppg, 1.91 apg, 0.98 to, 1.95 A-to-T, .402 FG, .356 3pt

Banks is a much better defender, but I can't see anyone who puts numbers up like Tierre's sticking around long.

If the Lakers sign Anderson, I think they are done for the off-season

I wrote this on 8/3 (Link)
Their roster if they sign Derek Anderson:
PG - Anderson, Parker
SG - Bryant, Walton (also SF)
SF - Odom, Jones (also PF), George (also SG)
PF - Brown, Cook
C - Mihm, Grant (also PF), Bynum
Inactive - Vujacic, Wafer, Medvedenko
Waived - Divac, Profit

If the Lakers sign Anderson, I think it will be to the MLE. The way the CBA is structured, waived players will want to make as much money as possible and the Lakers will want to give Anderson only 2 guaranteed years.

The only additional move I can see the Lakers making is waiving Grant and signing Robert Traylor to the LLE or vet minimum. I don't think the Lakers will waive Grant unless they can get a PF/C cheap.

With the Lakers' trading pieces being Divac, Cook, George, Medvedenko, Vujacic and Miami's first round pick, I don't think the Lakers can make a trade that improves their roster.

Lots of posters want to sign another guard besides Anderson such as Tyronn Lue, but (1) there isn't a roster spot and (2) I think anyone the Lakers can get for the LLE won't be significantly better than Parker.

I would think Medvedenko is on the bubble and could be cut in training camp. His salary isn't that much ($3 mil) and his inability to learn the triangle in 5 years really makes him of questionable value for the Lakers. At the same time, he put up some good numbers in Phil's last season and perhaps Phil thinks he can get him back on to the right track.

Since I wrote this, Grant was waived, so the Lakers should get a veteran back up

A comment on Sean May

I wrote this on 8/3 (Link) in a thread "Do you think we should have drafted Seam May?"
It's my understanding from summer league write ups is that Sean May though did well in the SPL, but will find himself a tweener in the NBA. He isn't quick enough to guard NBA PF's and he isn't big enough to play against NBA C's. Bynum is a bigger gamble, but has much more upside.

Best and Worst Defensive Players in NBA

I wrote this on 8/3 (Link)
A blogger (Dan Rosenbaum) did a statistical analysis to determine who are the best defensive players at their position. He looked at how much a team was scored on with the player on the court versus with the player off the court. He threw out garbage minutes and made other adjustments. He analyzed players for their career, but said the results for rookies (particularly rookies who didn't play a lot of minutes) are not stable. One obvious problem with this methodology is that if you split time with someone who is a defensive wizard your results are going to understate your defensive abilities and if you split time with a matador, the results are going to overstate your defensive prowess. For example, Tony Allen's #1 ranking is due in part to Ricky Davis' poor defense.

Notable for the Lakers - Tierre Brown was the third worst point guard. Potential Laker PG's Tyronn Lue was the second worst, Damon Stoudamire was the fourth worse. Carlos Arroyo, who some Laker fans wanted Mitch to get when he was dealt mid-season, is fifth worse.

Here is the list. Top part is the best defensive players from very best on down. The bottom part is the worst defensive players from very worst on up:
Point Guards      Shooting Guards    Small Forwards
================  =================  ================
Chris Duhon       Tony Allen         Shane Battier
Marcus Banks      Andre Iguodala     Darius Miles
Earl Watson       Josh Smith         Trevor Ariza
Jason Kidd        Ben Gordon         Shandon Anderson
Eric Snow         Aaron McKie        Paul Pierce
                  Gerald Wallace     Bruce Bowen
                  Manu Ginobili
                  Eddie Jones

Troy Hudson       Michael Redd       Peja Stojakovic
Tyronn Lue        DeShawn Stevenson  Matt Harpring
Tierre Brown      Jalen Rose         Lee Nailon
Damon Stoudamire  Keith Bogans       Wally Szczerbiak
Carlos Arroyo     Latrell Sprewell   Tim Thomas
Nick Van Exel     Raja Bell          Carmelo Anthony
Leandro Barbosa   Ricky Davis
                  J.R. Smith

Power Forwards       Centers  
===================  ================  
Tim Duncan           Ben Wallace  
Kevin Garnett        Dikembe Mutumbo  
Nick Collison        Theo Ratliff  
Tyson Chandler       Jason Collins  
Nenê                 Joel Pryzbilla  
Andrei Kirilenko      
Rasheed Wallace      


Matt Bonner          Primoz Brezec  
Cliff Robinson       Marc Jackson
Antawn Jamison       Predrag Drobnjak
Juwan Howard         Mark Blount
Austin Croshere      Eddy Curry
Antoine Walker
Shareef Abdur-Rahim

Laker Mysteries

I wrote this on 8/1 (Link). Almost immediately after, a lot of the mysteries were solved.
There are no rumors coming out of the Lakers organization. The Lakers seem to have become very tight-lipped since the rumored Boozer trade and Bender trade. Also, Mitch doesn't hype players and tries to keep expectations low. Most GM's would have been touting how Wafer and Parker played in the SPL, but not the Lakers. Net sum - no news from Lakerland. However, there are many questions that need an answer this off-season. Here is what I call the "Laker Mysteries" and some of their possible answers:

What is happening with Von Wafer?
When he was drafted with the 39th pick, everyone said "Who?!?!?" But Von Wafer did very well in the SPL. After quickly correcting a problem of leaning too much on his shots, Wafer shot 65% from 3pt land. He took over one game with a tremendous scoring burst in the last 4 minutes. According to Mike@LG, he was the most talented Laker SPL player since Kobe. And since the SPL ended, we have heard nothing. Turiaf signed a contract, but no contract for Wafer even though the Lakers are much deeper at PF (Brown, Grant, Cook, Medvedenko) than at guard (Kobe and Sasha). The options:

The Lakers are using him as trade bait
Players who sign a contract can't be traded for 3 months. The Lakers are holding off signing him so that he can be traded now. The problem with this idea is that Wafer really fits a major need for the Lakers and other teams are unlikely to value a second-round pick that has only played in the SPL (it's my thought that teams value their picks more than other clubs do because they have so much committed to their success).

The Lakers don't have a roster spot and want him to play international ball for at least one year
Yes, the Lakers have 14 guaranteed contracts - Bryant, Grant, Odom, Brown, Divac, George, Mihm, Medvenko, Bynum, Jones, Vujacic, Cook, Profit and Walton - and if they sign a MLE and LLE, there isn't room for Wafer. However, I think the Lakers would prefer to have Vujacic as a fifth guard (if not in the NBDL) and aren't counting on Profit to make the roster, so even if the MLE and LLE are both guards, there is still room for Wafer. Grant and/or Divac are likely to go (see below) to create a roster spot for Wafer.

The Lakers have to chose between Parker and Wafer on the roster and Wafer is losing
Smush Parker played well in the SPL (see below) and because he is a free agent, the Lakers have to either sign him or lose him. If Wafer plays international ball, the Lakers keep his rights. Parker is more of a PG than Wafer and the Lakers currently don't have any PG's signed. So if the Lakers only have one roster spot for a young guard, it makes more sense to sign Parker and arrange for Wafer to play international ball. The problems with this idea are that, per Mike@LG, Wafer played better than Parker in the SPL and given that Parker has played in the league before and Wafer is only 19, Wafer has a lot more upside than Parker.

The Lakers are waiting for things to shake out
The Lakers are trying to make trades, sign players waived for amnesty reasons, sign free agents, etc. Not signing Wafer allows the Lakers to see how everything falls out and then make a decision. If their roster fills up, then Wafer can play international ball for a year. If that's true, why did the Lakers sign Turiaf? Everything applies equally to him and there is a less of a need for him than for Wafer.

The Lakers want to use MLE money to sign Wafer, but are waiting on deals before using any MLE money
I get the impression from recent Celtics' moves that if a team wants to sign their second round pick to more than second round money, they can do so by using money from the MLE. However, the Lakers aren't likely to do that until they know what free agent(s) they are going to sign with the MLE. Hence, the wait.

What is happening with Smush Parker?
Smush played well in the SPL. Mike@LG's assessment:

Quote:

Good backup PG. 2-way player. Not as quick as Barbosa, not as explosive as Dooling to the basket. Definitely NBA level athleticism and certainly above average (8/10) overall. With continued improved skills, would really be a borderline starting PG in the triangle offense. I would've preferred him over Fisher.

As the Lakers have no PG's on roster, Parker feels a tremendous need. However, I have seen nothing about Parker since the end of the SPL. Because Parker is a free agent, he wants to sign a contract with some team on August 2nd. The options:

He's not that good
The OC Register on July 21st wrote: "Smush Parker did well enough for the Lakers' summer-league team that he might be invited to training camp." The Lakers could be looking at signing Gary Payton and Tyronn Lue (or other veteran PG's) with their MLE and LLE, probably leaving no room for Parker. Under this scenario, Parker will get an invite to training camp where he can battle for the 15th spot, but will probably be cut for someone with a guaranteed contract. Not being a true PG, there are any other teams that he can try to latch on with. However, the Lakers are very thin at guard and could sign Payton, Lue, Wafer and Parker, send Sasha down to the NBDL and still have 5 guards on the roster. See more below on PG's

The Lakers are waiting for things to shake out
Once the Lakers make whatever trades, signings, etc., then they will decide what to do with Parker. The problem with this is that if they wait too long, Parker might sign with another club in the NBA or overseas. Unless the Lakers make moves to land both a starting PG and back up PG, they need Parker, so why take the risk?

The Lakers want to give Parker MLE money, but are waiting on deals before using any MLE money
If the Lakers want to give Parker more than LLE money, they could be waiting to see what they do with their MLE money before deciding any contract. However, I think Parker would be happy for the vet minimum or the LLE.

What is happening with Devin Green?
Green was the third best guard on the SPL. He's length, hustle and defense would fit well with the triangle, but he needs to improve his jumpshot to play in the NBA. An excellent candidate for the NBDL or international ball. Again, no news after the SPL.

He's not that good
And he may not be. The Lakers could invite him to training camp and let him fight for the last roster spot. I doesn't sound like he played well enough in the SPL for other teams to try to lure him away. If he plays international ball, the Lakers don't have any rights to him.

Will Brian Grant be waived?
Ideally, waiving Grant saves the Lakers $30 million over two years. However, who are the Lakers going to have as back up C if they waive Grant? They will probably use Kwame, but if Kwame is injured, they only have Bynum (not big enough for more than 10 mpg) and a bunch of PF's. If the Lakers acquire a big to take Grant's place, the cost of the new big will probably come close to the cost of keeping Grant.

For example, let's say the Lakers are involved with a three way S&T where they send Divac to Boston with the Miami pick and get Jerome Williams from New York (who winds up with Antoine Walker). Just an idea to discuss. The Lakers would have to pay luxury tax on Williams so his contract would cost $12 million the first year and $13 million the next. Net out the cost of buying Divac's contract and the Lakers save only $7 million. And that is at the cost of the Miami pick.

Any veteran big to take Grant's place is going to cost at least $5 million a year. The Lakers aren't going to be able to sign a good back up big with the MLE for two years, so they are going to have to trade for one. When you add the cost of the trade with the cost of the new big man, it doesn't make sense to waive Grant. Now, the Lakers could gamble that Kwame doesn't get injured and not get a big man to replace Grant. Or they could use Divac as their back up C. I think those are just too risky.

Who will the Lakers have in the NBDL?
Andrew Bynum is one choice as the Lakers have said that he won't get many minutes this season. However, the reason he won't get many minutes is that his 17-year old body is not up to many minutes in the paint with NBA-sized players. The Lakers will probably keep him with the club to keep an eye on him and to give him as much NBA minutes as his body can take.

Sasha Vujacic is another candidate for the NBDL as he is a project that needs lots of PT if he is every going to be a successful combo guard. At the same time, Sasha was easily frustrated in the SPL and playing in the NBDL in a system that doesn't fit him could easily cause him to regress. We will have to wait and see.

Wafer, Parker and Green are other candidates, but will they even be signed by the Lakers? Again, we will have to wait and see.

What are the Lakers going to do with their expiring contracts?
Divac, George, Medvedenko and Jones have a little over $15 million worth of contracts that expire at the end of this season. Divac's contract can be bought out for $2 million, making him very attractive to a team that wants to trade a contract worth up to $6.74 million and get nothing back. However, expiring contracts are generally used to get (1) players who have expensive long-term contracts that teams no longer want or (2) players that are going to be free agents and aren't going to re-sign with their team. The Lakers aren't interested in type #1 players and aren't willing to offer a long enough contract to make trading for a type #2 player worthwhile. If Divac isn't traded, his contract will be bought out. The Lakers could then re-sign Divac, but I think his back isn't good enough to make bringing him back worthwhile.

What are the Lakers going to do for a starting PG?
Sasha, Smush and Von are not up to starting. The Lakers lost out on Antonio Daniels (put me in the "offering a 30-year old career back up a 5-year contract is nuts" camp). Beyond that, there doesn't appear to be any good options. Jason Williams? Terrible fit for the triangle. Gary Payton? Bad fit, hated Phil, screwed the Lakers and is too old. Tyronn Lue? Experience with triangle, but too small, played only 46 games in two years with Phil and averaged only 4.4 apg in 29.7 mpg that last two seasons. The answer to this mystery will probably determine the answers to most of the other mysteries.

First round picks play in summer leagues

I wrote this on 7/20 (Link)
I thought I would pull together from DraftExpress.com summer league play summaries of the top draft picks. My impression is that the writers that covered the Las Vegas league were very complimentary of players and would say something bad only if the player stank. The writer for the Rocky Mountain league seems to be a little on the critical side. The SPL comments are a summary of the first half of the league's games. Adjust your takes accordingly

Note: This is summer league play. Great play doesn't guarantee All-Star play in the NBA. Poor play doesn't mean a pick will be a bust. "The race does not always go to the swift or the battle to the strong, but it is a darn good way to bet."

Mods - am I quoting too much from DraftExpress.com? If so, I will just summarize their reviews. I am just going to post a little bit until I get a ruling on this from a moderator.

#1 Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks
Seems to be having problems in the Minnesota summer league adjusting to playing against centers the size of NBA centers. Did very well against smaller centers.

David Harrison vs Andrew Bogut – I had been waiting to see this matchup all week, as it was obvious that the one player Bogut would have the most trouble with was Harrison. Bogut isn’t a physical marvel, and the massive Harrison gave him fits. Bogut scored just three points in the first half (0-4 from the floor, 3-4 on free throws), while Harrison went for 14 points on 5-7 shooting. Bogut got frustrated, and clearly began to lose it when John Edwards straight up rejected his dunk attempt midway through the third quarter.

#2 Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks
Has been lethargic and unimpressive in the Rocky Mountain league.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Williams is struggling finding a role for himself on the court and seemed to have problems having the offense run through him. Later when he found himself without the ball, he seemed to just stand around, trying to think of what to do instead of acting, not being able to get himself or a teammate into scoring position. A big part of the problem seemed to be his durability, he looked as though he was getting very tired after just a couple minutes of play, and by the time he was pulled he looked as though he was going to break down. Unlike most prospects from this year’s draft, Williams hasn’t been on a basketball court much in competitive situations since the season ended in early April. He hasn’t had the luxury of staying in game shape through private workouts with NBA teams, and therefore is having problems shaking off the rust in such a foreign situation as far as he’s concerned.

In the second half Williams looked a little more athletic and aggressive, diving for loose balls and moving very well to compliment to the offense without the ball. Marvin consistently was one of the first to get to the ball off the boards, pulling down all of his rebounds in the second half.

His shooting touch wasn't at all apparent in the first half, though, as he went 0-3 from the field and missed his only shot attempt from the free throw line. His only shots seemed to be in the 18-20 foot range and not contested very well, yet he still struggled with them. The second half still showed nothing but poor shooting for Marvin as he went 2-8, but at least he put the ball in the bucket finally, also going 3-5 from the line in this span.

As for the defensive side of the ball, Williams struggled badly, not having any steals or blocks, but the key stat to look at is that of the man he was guarding, Britton Johnson, who led all first half scorers with 16 points on 6-10 shooting from the field. Marvin left him wide open much of the time and got punished for that in the process. He didn't do much better in the second half either, with players scoring wildly on him, but he worked to contest more shots.

#3 Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
He is having lots of problems in the Rocky Mountain league:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Another lackluster performance for Williams, with the most positive thing from this game being his first made three pointer in three games so far. So far in Utah he has shot the ball poorly, nearly fouled out of every game (if you could foul out), and struggled to get his team’s offense to click. He has shown that he can play good defense and he certainly has great court vision, but he’s had a trouble bringing it all together to really impact the game. Williams has shown some gaping holes in his game that need to be filled quickly for the Jazz to have success with this young point guard as their starter, mainly his perimeter shooting, ability to get into the lane and letting his teammates know where he wants them to be on the floor. At times he tries to get too fancy with the ball and his teammates end up standing around watching him over-handle. He finished with another average stat-line of 8 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and 3 turnovers in 23 minutes of play. It’s too early to make any final conclusions, but Deron will clearly have to make some adjustments in his game to translate his style of play over from college to the NBA.

#4 Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
In 34.5 mpg in Las Vegas, averaged 11.8 ppg on 37.0% shooting, 33.3% on 3 pointers, 60% on free threes, 5.3 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.8 spg, 2.3 TO's. Suffered a wrist injury during the summer league. Played poorly right after he returned, but here is the write up for his last game:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Chris Paul has come to play with his passing game today. Paul’s wrist has limited his offensive aggressiveness, but has done nothing but accentuate his defensive abilities. Paul had at least 3 steals in the first half and showed an array of different passes that culminated in a sweet 35 foot ally-oop to JR Smith, who finished with a one-handed jam. Paul even blocked a shot in this game, but landed on his wrist for the effort. Maybe the landing fixed what was wrong with the wrist because Paul rocked his defender off him with a smooth step-back jumper that nestled into the hoop. He followed up his jumper with a couple more smooth hoops to round out a very solid first half, finishing close to double-digits in assists.

#5 Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats
Had a rotten first game in the Rocky Mountain league, but a good second game.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
24mins, 5-9, 3 rebounds, 5 assist, 2 steals, 2 TO, 15 points. Felton looked like the complete opposite of the player he was on opening night here in Salt Lake City. He was confident, even with his main man Sean May out, and was pushing the ball and controlling the tempo beautifully. He was extremely intense during the game, showing the same passion we all remember from this confident and energetic PG at North Carolina. Felton was creating his own shot effortlessly today, with his explosive speed there wasn’t a single player on the court who had a chance to stay in front of him. He would get to the rim at will and either finish the play himself or dump it off for a teammate, looking deadly doing both.

#6 Martell Webster, Portland Trailblazers
In 32.8 mpg in Las Vegas, averaged 12.7 ppg on 38.8% shooting, 37.5% on 3 pointers, 75.0% on free throws, 4.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 spg and 2.3 turnovers. He started hot and then teams figured out that all he can do is catch and shoot. Here is the write up for his last game:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Webster has been trying to put the ball on the floor a lot more and create offense for himself, with limited success. As mentioned already, his percentages from the field plummet when he’s not catching and shooting. Defensively he had a very hard time with Luke Jackson. Webster was 1-8 to finish with 3 points in 32 minutes.

#7 Charlie Villanueva, Toronto Raptors
Suffered a strained right groin muscle in the SPL, so missed the Minnesota summer league. My impression from LG.net veteran posters is that Charlie has a good all-around game.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Villanueva put up some good numbers at the first game to start the SPL, but then tapered off in the next two. The rumors about him getting lost or disinterested occasionally on the floor appear to be true. Often times entire possessions go by where he fails to get involved. Unfortunately we might not get a chance to see him make a turnaround as he sat out Monday's game against the Lakers. I spoke with him briefly during halftime and apparently he tweaked an ankle. We'll likely have to wait until the season to see if he can capitalize on his potential and find a position that suits him on the team.

#8 Channing Frye, New York Knicks
My impression is a solid offensive player, but poor defender, rebounder and shot blocker. Lee outrebounded him in Vegas and tied him in Minnesota. In 23.0 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 13.0 ppg on 43.2% shooting, 0.0% on 3 pointers, 96.4% on free throws, 5.8 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.4 turnovers and 6.0 fouls. Here's the write up for Minnesota:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
(23.0 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 60% shooting) – Frye looked good most of the camp. He’s not ever going to be that guy you can give the ball to repeatedly, but he makes the most out of every situation. His jumper is sweet, he’s got nice shot blocking instincts, and will be a factor around the basket.

#9 Ike Diogu, Golden State Warriors
In 28.0 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 18.4 ppg on 59.3% shooting, 84.6% free throws, 8.4 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.0 spg, 0.6 bpg and 2.4 turnovers. Here is his last write up:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
A quiet first half for Diogu today, but he still made his presence felt on the glass pretty well and by scoring a little bit around the basket. He picked his spots pretty well and did a better job of staying out of foul trouble this time.

Another nice half for Diogu, without drawing too much attention to himself. He did his job on both ends of the floor and finished with 15 points and 7 rebounds.

#10 Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers
His play in the SPL has exceeded my expectations. He seems very coachable and the reports indicate steady progress in the fundamentals. He is a project and has a long way to go.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
The Lakers selecting Bynum with their highest draft pick in years has put a lot of pressure on the high school kid's shoulders. At only 17 years of age, the 7' 270lbs Bynum and his rumored 36" vertical leap (off one foot) is a physical marvel for sure, but we may be years away from seeing how it all pans out. As it stands right now he has soft hands for a guy his size and doesn't look awkward running the floor which is a problem for young big men. His footwork is good, but it seems to be due to natural ability more than any learned skill. His timing is off in both rebounding and blocking shots, however, that's more of an adjustment to the speed of the game than any lack of talent. Despite his size he still needs to bulk up. He has a large lower base which allows him to plant himself firmly on the offensive end, but he does a poor job of boxing out on the defensive side of the floor. Interestingly, his defensive rotation and ability to defend the pick-and-roll are very good so far. He's caught a few alley-oop dunks in transition that have gotten the crowd going, but the majority of his scoring seems to be coming off the block or from offensive boards. His free throws are flat, but they go in consistently. Adding some more arc will improve them even more. The buzz on him amongst the NBA personnel and scouts I've spoken with has all been good with some registering surprise. I expect him to only play sparingly this year. It should be interesting to see where he is developmentally come next year's Summer Pro League.

#11 Fran Vazquez, Orlando Magic
He is beset by contractual issues with his Spanish team, didn't make summer league and it isn't clear if he will make training camp.

#12 Yaroslav Korolev, Los Angeles Clippers
He is playing in the Under-18 European Championships instead of summer league.

#13 Sean May, Charlotte Bobcats
Injured his ankle in the last game in the Rocky Mountain league. Prior to that, he was too slow to be effective against PF's and not big enough to be effective against NBA-sized C's.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Started at PF but didn’t seem to have the quickness to guard Kris Humphries one on one. With Humphries pushing him to sprint up and down the court he tired very quickly and didn’t really get too much going in the first half because of it. In the 2nd half, when a slower bigger man such as Whaley or Ingram was on him was when May really went to work, destroying both of them in the post. He showed great post moves, doing fantastic work underneath the basket and using his size and bulk to his advantage. Watching him use his post moves after he gets an offensive rebound reminds a bit of Charles Barkley. The problem with May is that with his lack of foot-speed right now he would probably struggle going up against NBA power forwards, while certainly not having the height or the leaping ability to match up with centers. May needs to work on getting into better shape, improve on his perimeter skills and learn the little tricks that 6-8 power forwards usually have down pat to really be able to use his awesome skill set on the offensive end. Today he was dominant at times and finished with 19 points and 18 rebounds.

#14 Rashad McCants, Minnesota Timberwolves
Missed summer league because of a groin injury.

#15 Antoine Wright, New Jersey Nets
He was the only talent on an abysml summer league team. His first three games were awful, but he played well in his last two. In 35.0 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 16.4 ppg on 36.0% shooting, 28.6% on 3 pointers and 64.9% on free throws, 2.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg and 3.2 turnovers. Here is the write up on his last game:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Wright is playing well for the second consecutive game. Wright has hit a couple of nice outside shots, one from 16ft and another from 3 point range. Wright has made some smooth forays to the basket, showing good lateral cutting ability. Antoine has also shown a keen eye for finding teammates off the drive, though this is the first game its really shown. Wright’s shot is still very flat from outside when he doesn’t have his feet set and he must work on this if he wants to set up those quick moves to the hoop.

In the second half Antoine made smart decisions with good results. Wright really displayed some acute court awareness on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Antoine got into his defender well and made a few solid help decisions. On the offensive side of the ball Wright continues to have success with his outside shot and used it very well to setup his defender for more smooth trips to the basket. Wright’s passing touch and court vision were his best attributes in this game, mostly because he had been primarily a shooter in the other games. Wright is not super explosive, but he has very solid body control and looks very relaxed and natural when attacking the basket, even switching hands for a soft lay-in around the help defender on one occasion.

#16 Joey Graham, Toronto Raptors
Suffered a strained right calf in the SPL summer league, so missed the Minnesota summer league.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Graham looks to have the most polished game of the Raptors players and has the NBA body to back it up. He's not particularly quick off the dribble and doesn't have the handles that many of the other players have, but he plays with a smoothness and confidence that many summer league players tend to lack. His numbers might not be overwhelming, but he looks like he might turn into a very solid role player.

#17 Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Lingering soreness from an old knee injury kept him out of summer league games.

#18 Gerald Green, Boston Celtics
Raw, raw rookie who can do little but dunk. In 18.8 mpg in Las Vegas, averaged 8.0 ppg on 40.4% shooting, 57.1% on 3 pointers, 50.0% on free throws, 1.3 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.0 turnovers. Because the Celtics stocked their roster with 1 and 2 year NBA veterans, Green didn't get the time that a #1 pick normally gets in a summer league. Here are the last two write ups for him:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Green’s only getting in here because of his status as a figure of interest for Celtic fans. Green’s jumper looks very good, even when he misses it, but his shot selection is shaky at best. Gerald just can’t beat his defender off the dribble and most of his shots are on lateral moves. Still, he can elevate quickly and it’s hard to block so the shot is his to miss or make. If Green got more help with screens he’d be able to get to the rack easily and when he’s squared to the basket he is very confident. Gerald has shown a desire to post on occasion, which is nice, and he had a smooth steal/assist to Al Jefferson that highlighted his first half.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Gerald Green is still a babe lost in the woods. Green was affected twice by Darko Milicic on drives to the hoop as he lost the handle on an easy dunk and got stuffed by Milicic on a second attempt. Green needs a lot of seasoning before he can contribute anything but the spectacular play. He finished with 3 points on 1-8 shooting in 20 minutes.

#19 Hakim Warrick, Memphis Grizzlies
He put up good numbers in his three games against the Lakers.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Warrick is just as athletic as advertised and unfortunately just as skinny. He's got explosive hops and has put up a few monster dunks this summer, but his outside shot is poor and can be pushed around a bit defensively. Some people have compared him to Stromile Swift at the SPL, but that seems a poor comparison based on him replacing Swift in the lineup more than their actual skill sets. Swift is a significantly better defender and showed great timing on his boards and blocks while playing summer league ball. Warrick definitely has the physical ability to do what Swift does, but hasn't shown it yet. With a good amount of working out and training he could end up being a very good player in a few years time.

#20 Julius Hodge, Denver Nuggets
In 33.0 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 13.3 ppg on 43.8% shooting, 18.2% on 3 pointers, 62.9% on free throws, 5.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.5 turnovers. Here is his last write up:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Hodge continues to get the job done once again , slashing hard to the basket time after time and either finishing or getting to the line. He’s also playing tough defense and moving the ball around well.

#21 Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
Nate has been probably the most exciting player in the summer leagues, playing in both Las Vegas and Minnesota. Can dunk like crazy and blows past the guards defending him. He's a scoring machine, but can he play point guard? In Vegas, he took 61 shots which was 19.5% of the team's total shots. The next highest shot total was Channing Frye with 44 shots. The Vegas scorekeepers weren't generous with assists. Still, Robinson's only 10 assists in 5 games compared to 16 turnovers doesn't look good. In Minnesota, he averaged 5.8 assists to 2.6 turnovers, but took 22.7% of the team's shots while shooting .391.

#22 Jarrett Jack, Portland Trailblazers
He signed his contract after summer league play ended.

#23 Francisco Garcia, Sacramento Kings
In 36.0 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 12.4 ppg on 35.0% shooting, 23.5% on 3 pointers, 88.9% free throws, 4.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.4 bpg and 2.0 turnovers. His last write up:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Garcia showed off his entire game in the 1st half, finally looking comfortable enough in his skin out there to make things happen on both ends of the floor. He made some superb passes to all of his teammates for easy baskets and was not forcing things even one bit on the offensive end. Defensively he was fantastic once again, bringing the crowd to its feet with a superb block, getting in the passing lanes to come up with steals, and moving his feet extremely well to stay in front of his man. It’s this type of versatility that made Garcia a first round pick in the first round pick in the first place. It’s also his ticket to playing time this year behind Kevin Martin and probably Maurice Evans if he’s resigned. Just as I was about to sign off praising Garcia for the way he played in the first half, he comes back and jacks up off-balance three pointers on three straight possessions out of the context of the offense. He missed all three of them.

Garcia continued to have a solid game in the 2nd half when he was taking good shots. He really did a good job filling up the stat sheet. Garcis finished with 15 points 5 rebounds 3 assists 4 blocks and 2 steals.

#24 Luther Head, Houston Rockets
Head had only had one good game in the Minnesota summer league and that was against a pathetic Milwaukee team.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
(21.4 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.0 t/o, 33% shooting) – Head had a few bright moments, but it wasn’t a standout week for the combo guard. He struggled to hit his midrange jumpers, and wasn’t a factor on the offensive end in the final two games. He did show a willingness and ability to distribute the ball, however, which is promising for someone who is now considered a combo guard. I really like his defensive potential.

#25 John Petro, Seattle Supersonics
A PROJECT playing in the Rocky Mountain league.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Petro surely has a great body, looking a little bit like a young KG with his frame but without any of the phenomenal skills of course. He is extremely athletic for his size and has great jumping ability. Petro didn’t seem like he had any idea of what should be going on, while his team understood what he is doing even less. He shied away from contact on both ends and wasn't physical enough to say the least. He has great speed, though, and even when he steps out on guards on a switch he even can stay with them. Seems to have tons of potential, but definitely a ways off. Needs to work on his overall game, bulk up a little, and learn how to play the NBA game.

#26 Jason Maxiell, Detroit Pistons
Jeremy Snow is amazed on how good this guy is. In 26.8 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 15.0 ppg on 51.9% shooting, 100% on 3 pointers, 60.0% on free throws, 3.6 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.8 bpg and 0.8 turnovers. Here is his last write up:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Maxiell came out to prove today that his performance in the Summer League so far against undrafted European prospects mostly was not a fluke. He came out right away by sending back a weak hook shot by Al Jefferson, before going back and being rejected by Jefferson on the other end. After settling for mid-range jumpers a little initially he went back to his bread and butter taking the ball strong to the basket relentlessly with mostly successful results in the first half. He had one thunderous dunk over Al Jefferson before coming back on the other end and rejecting Gerald Green emphatically as he skied for a highlight reel dunk attempt. The Celtics rotated three men on Maxiell in the first half; with Jefferson, Perkins and Gomes all having mixed results trying to slow Mad Max in the paint. He had four blocks in the first half, although one of them was clearly goaltending as he sent a Jefferson hook shot that was definitely on it’s way down to the fifth row. It was sweet to watch regardless. Maxiell finished with 9 points and 4 blocks in the first half.

Maxiell was just as exciting to watch in the 2nd half as well, coming up with one awesome block on Gerald Green, a couple of very strong rebounds and a few huge putbacks on the offensive glass. If Max would have finished off his free throws and maybe hit some of those open mid-range jumpers in the 2nd half his line would have ended up looking much better, but he still had an outstanding game here regardless for what he needed to show. He finished with 17 points, 5 blocks, 4 steals and 3 rebounds.

#27 Linas Kleiza, Denver Nuggets
In 27.3 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 15.2 ppg on 54.1% shooting, 0.0% on 3 pointers, 86.2% on free throws, 6.2 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.2 bpg and 2.3 turnovers. Here is his last write up:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Yet another solid outing from the extremely consistent Kleiza. He continues to amaze everyone in attendance with his outstanding motor and polished perimeter skills considering that he was played out of position at Missouri for two years before he wisely decided to bail on them. Kleiza also rebounded well and did his best on defense. He finished the game with 14 points and 10 rebounds.

#28 Ian Mahinmi, San Antonio Spurs
Not playing in summer league.

#29 Wayne Simien, Miami Hear
My impression from LG.net veteran posters is that Simien looked very good out there and looks like a steal for Miami. One of the big issues with Simien is whether he is injury prone. He was underwhelming in the last game, shooting 6/15 and getting only 4 rebounds in almost 36 minutes.

DraftExpress.com wrote:
Simien has looked very solid to start out, posting two 20 point games so far and excellent rebounding numbers throughout. He hasn't been as explosive as advertised, but he's been a workhorse on the court and has been particularly aggressive on the offensive glass. He has a good chance of contributing some strong minutes this upcoming season.

#30 David Lee, New York Knicks
He's an undersized PF on a team overstocked with undersized PF's. The Knicks played him at small forward quite a bit. Overall, he put up good numbers. In 21.8 mpg in Las Vegas, he averaged 12.0 ppg on 56.7% shooting, 70.3% on free throws, 6.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.0 bpg and 1.6 turnovers. Here's the write up for the Minnesota summer league:

DraftExpress.com wrote:
(26.8 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 58% shooting) – Lee isn’t your prototypical undersized PF. He doesn’t have the greatest back to the basket game, but is a true beast attacking the basket when facing up. He’s got quick feet, can be a terror on the offensive glass, and reacts well in scoring situations. He’s a little bit stuck between positions, but Lee was certainly fun to watch here.

Gerald Green's summer league stats

There has been a number of threads on LG.net about whether the Lakers should have taken Gerald Green instead of Andrew Bynum. I wrote this on 7/15 (Link)
The thing with Green is that he can dunk, but not a whole lot else.

• A 1-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio
  
• 46.2% from the field
  
• 50.0% from the line
  
• In 18.6 mimutes per game, he is averaging just 1.0 rebounds, but 1.8 turnovers and 4.0 fouls
  
• In 93 minutes of play, he has had 1 assist and 2 steals

Just based on statistics, Devin Green (similar height and hops) looks like a much better player.

Roster thoughts - what if we can't sign AD? Trade with ORL?

I wrote this on 7/14 (Link)
Based on what I am hearing from the SPL, it sounds like:
Bynum - will be a back up center
Turiaf - will be a back up PF
Parker - will be a back up PG
Vujacic - 12th man or goes to NBDL for more seasoning
Wafer - should go play international ball
Douthit - NBDL
Green - NBDL

Also, let's assume that the trade for Kwame Brown happens and it is Butler and Atkins for Brown. That leaves the Lakers roster as:
     Keepers           Trade Bait?
C  - Mihm, Bynum     | Divac, Grant
PF - Brown, Turiaf   | Cook, Medvedenko
SF - Odom, Walton    | Jones, George
SG - Bryant, Vujacic |
PG - ???, Parker     |

The Lakers could slide Walton or George to the back up SG position. Of Divac, Grant, Cook and Medvedenko, I think the Lakers want to keep one on the active roster and one on the inactive roster, meaning two have to go. One possibility is to waive Grant for luxury tax savings and roster space.

The big hole in the roster (assuming that Atkins goes for Brown) is a starting PG. My guess is that the Lakers are hoping to sign Antonio Daniels for that spot. But what if they can't? What if Daniels signs with another team? Looking around for veteran combo guards, the pickings are slim. Derek Anderson of Portland and Mike James of Houston are possibilities, but I can't think of a trade that would land them. Here are the trades I can think of:
Tony Allen of Boston for Cook
With the drafting of Green, Boston has four guys who can play SG - Pierce, Davis, Allen and Green. Boston is thin on bigs, with the Blount (who doesn't care), LaFrentz (who has bad knees), Jefferson (he is one year out of high school), Perkins (who is very raw) and Scalabrine (a hustling back up PF). Allen is a good defender, quick first step but needs to improve his jump shot.

Doug Christie of Orlando for George and Medvedenko
Christie was very unhappy after being traded to Orlando and, per Coach Hill, has asked to be traded. He was suppose to take over PG duties and let Steve Francis slide to SG, but that didn't work and Jameer Nelson was more successful at PG. Christie was named NBA all-defensive second team three seasons ago, but he is coming off of ankle surgery.

Stevie Francis of Orlando in three way with Dallas
I know - Francis isn't a good fit for the triangle or with Kobe. But the choices are so bad that he really is the third best choice. The Lakers would trade players to Dallas for Finley (who Dallas is going to trade or waive for luxury tax savings), who goes to Orlando. Dallas wants expiring contracts, which would mean Divac, Medvedenko, George and Jones. Another options are Divac, Medvedenko, George and Cook. A third option is Grant and Cook.

Post on a RealGM article on Kwame

I wrote this in a thread about how a RealGM article on Kwame Brown. The article said that the reason Kwame did poorly last season was that he didn't get enough shots and that the more shots Kwame got, the better he played.

A high number of shots for Kwame is correlated with a high number of rebounds and a good shooting percentage. However, CORRELATION DOESN"T EQUAL CAUSATION!!

Swimming deaths go up when the amount sold from ice cream trucks goes up. Does that mean that sales from ice cream trucks causing swimming deaths? No! In this case, it means increases in both are driven by the same thing, high outside temperatures and kids home for summer vacation.

Kwame is an inconsistant player. When he is playing well, he plays more minutes (which leads to more shots), gets more offensive rebounds (which leads to more shots and a higher shooting percentage) and defensive rebounds and shoots a better percentage. When he isn't playing well, he plays less minutes, takes less shots, gets less rebounds and shows a worse percentage. Saying that giving Kwame more shots will result in better play is like saying that having more ice cream trucks will cause more swimming deaths.

Free agent status as of 7/12

Here is the status of the top 25 free agents (per this RealGM article). One thing that stands out to me is that swingman are getting signed, probably reducing the amount of money bigman and point guards will get. 4 of the top 5 swingman have committed and the fifth (Joe Johnson) is close to being signed. Of the top 8 bigs, Z is re-signing with Cleveland and the rest are up in the air. Of the PG's on the list, only Daniels seems to be getting any attention.

#1 - Ray Allen of Seattle
Re-signing with Seattle for 5 years, $85 million

#2 - Michael Redd of Milwaukee
Re-signing with Milwaukee for 6 years, $90-$96 million

#3 - Samuel Dalembert (RFA) of Philadephia
No news. I would guess he is going to re-sign with Philadelphia

#4 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas of Cleveland
Will re-sign with Cleveland for five years

#5 - Tyson Chandler (RFA) of Chicago
He is talking with Atlanta. I would guess he is going to re-sign with Chicago

#6 - Joe Johnson (RFA) of Phoenix
Hawks have made offer, but Phoenix is suppose to be matching so far

#7 - Larry Hughes of Washington
The highest rated free agent to move, signing with Cleveland for undecided terms

#8 - Stromile Swift of Memphis
He is talking with a number of teams. No idea where he will go

#9 - Eddy Curry (RFA) of Chicago
He is talking with Atlanta. I would guess he is going to re-sign with Chicago

#10 - Bobby Simmons of the LA Clippers
Signed by the Milwaukee Bucks for 5 years, $47 million

#11 - Shareef Abdur Rahim of Portland
Talking with Nets and other teams. No idea where he will go

#12 - Antoine Walker of Boston
Wants a S&T, but Boston not interested in getting trash back. No idea where he will go

#13 - Cuttino Mobley of Sacramento
Nuggets and Clippers are interested. No idea where he will go

#14 - Kwame Brown (RFA) of Washington
Washington wants a S&T to get Butler for the Lakers.

#15 - Vladimir Radmanovic (RFA) of Seattle
Likely to re-sign with Seattle

#16 - Udonis Haslem (RFA) of Miami
Very likely to re-sign with Miami, though Cleveland is making a run at him

#17 - Marko Jaric (RFA) of the LA Clippers
No idea where he will go

#18 - Donyell Marshall of Toronto
Rumored to several places. No idea where he will go

#19 - Latrell Sprewell of Minnesota
No news I can see. No idea where he will go

#20 - Robert Horry of San Antonio
Re-signed with San Antonio for three years

#21 - Chris Andersen of New Orleans
May re-sign with New Orleans. No idea beyond that

#22 - Antonio Daniels of Seattle
Lots of possibilities including the Lakers

#23 - Brevin Knight of Charlotte
Charlotte is hoping to re-sign him. No idea beyond that

#24 - Damon Stoudamire of Portland
No news I can see. No idea where he will go

#25 - Reggie Evans (RFA) of Seattle
Seattle wants to re-sign him

Posted here

Bynum vs Frye vs Milicic

I wrote this on 7/10 (Link)
Comparison of stats so far. All the usual caveats about small sample size, different summer leagues, etc.
         Bynum     Frye     Milicic
        2 games   3 games   2 games
        =======   =======   =======
Minues    29.8      21.3      31.5
FGM/FGA  5.5/9.5   2.7/8.0   4.0/9.0
FG %      57.9%     33.3%     44.4%
FTM/FTA  3.0/7.0   6.3/6.7   2.0/2.5
FT %      42.9%     95.0%     80.0%
Points    14.0      11.7      10.0
OR/TR    3.0/5.5   2.3/3.7   2.0/5.5
Assists    0.5      0.7        1.0
Steals     0.5      0.0        0.0
Blocks     1.0      0.7        0.5
TO's       2.0      1.7        2.0
PF's       5.0      5.0        5.0
Checking out the NY Knicks board on RealGM, the fans are getting restless about Frye - ridiculous fouls per minute, poor rebounding and a terrible shooting percentage for a big man.

Rod Thorn - Worst GM in the NBA over the last three years

I wrote this on 7/8 (Link)
Why does this man still have a job? Since the 2002 draft, he has made a series of moves that have destroyed the Nets. The '01-'02 club had a 52-30 record and lost in the NBA Finals (to the Lakers). It had a rotation 9 players deep - Jason Kidd (28), Keith Van Horn (26), Kerry Kittles (27), Kenyon Martin (24), Richard Jefferson (21), Lucious Harris (31), Todd MacCulloch (26), Aaron Williams (30) and Jason Collins (23). Brian Scalabrine (24) was on the bench but hadn't broken into the rotation. In 2002, he drafted center Nenad Krstic (24th overall pick), who has become a decent player for them.

But from there, it's been all down hill. On 8/6/02, he traded forward Keith Van Horn and center Todd MacCulloch to the Philadelphia 76ers for center Dikembe Mutombo. Mutumbo played 24 games for the Nets in the '02-'03 season and was waived afterwards. Mutombo's monster contract ($16.1 mil, $17.9 mil and $19.7 mil) would be a serious financial drain on the team and cause painful cost-saving moves. On 8/14/02, he signed forward Rodney Rogers to a three-year contract. Rogers' shooting average plunged while at New Jersey from 47.1% the prior season to 40.2% and 41.0% in the two seasons he was there and then Rogers exercised his option to bail before season #3. In the 2003 draft, he selected guard Zoran Planinic (22nd overall pick) and forward Kyle Korver (51st overall pick) and then traded the draft rights to forward Kyle Korver to the Philadelphia 76ers for cash considerations. Planinic has been a scrub for New Jersey, averaging 9.7 mpg and 12.0 mpg in his two seasons there. Kyle Korver developed into a starter this year for Philadelphia. On 7/16/03, he signed center Alonzo Mourning to a guarenteed 4 year, $22.8 million contract after Mourning recovered from his kidney transplant. Mourning played 12 games for the Nets, retired, unretired, played 18 more games for the Nets, became an outspoken critic of the club and was eventually traded. In the 2004 draft, he selected forwards Viktor Khryapa (22nd overall pick) and Christian Drejer (51st overall pick) and then traded the draft rights to forward Viktor Khryapa to the Portland Trail Blazers for guard Eddie Gill and cash considerations. Eddie Gill was waived about a week later.

On 7/15/04, he did a sign-and-trade with All-Star Kenyon Martin to the Denver Nuggets for three first round picks. Apparently, Thorn felt that the Nets couldn't afford to pay an All-Star PF $82 million over 6 years. This is after agreeing to pay Mutombo $63.7 million over three years and Alonzo Mourning $22.8 million over four years. Those picks turned out to be the Clippers 2006 pick, the #16 pick and Denver's 2006 pick. Three mid-first round picks is not a lot for an All-Star power forward. He then thinned his bench some more by trading Kerry Kittles to the LA Clippers for a future second-round pick and cash. In 2 years, Thorn had transformed a 9-deep, young championship contender to a team of little talent beyond Kidd and Jefferson. The Nets started the '04-'05 season with Kidd injured and suffered a 4-12 record without him.

On 12/17/04, Thorn made the trade that would save the Nets' season by trading forwards Eric Williams and Aaron Williams, center Alonzo Mourning and two first-round picks to the Toronto Raptors for guard Vince Carter. Carter had been dogging it in Toronto and revitalized his game playing with Kidd. Carter brought with him a contract for $57.9 million over 4 years. The Nets were 4-12 before Kidd returned, 5-4 with Kidd and before Carter, and 33-24 after Carter started playing for them. On 2/14/05, he traded second-round picks in 2005 and 2007 to the Golden State Warriors for forward Clifford Robinson. Normally, trading away two second round picks would not be a big deal, but the Nets were desperately short of young bench players and giving up the picks to rent a 38 year old for 29 games at 20.7 mpg seems to me quite stupid. The Nets made the playoffs and then lost four straight to Miami.

In three years, Thorn turned Keith Van Horn, Kerry Kittles, Kenyon Martin, Lucious Harris, Todd MacCulloch, Aaron Williams, two #22 picks, two #51 picks, a 2007 second round pick and two MLE free agents into Vince Carter, Zoran Planinic, Christian Drejer, the Clippers 2006 first round pick and a future Clipper second round pick. Amazing. This ranks up there with Jerry Krause's performance after Jordan retired.

Coming into the 2005 draft, the Nets had Carter at SG and Jefferson at SF and only 2 guys taller than 6'7" signed to contracts. Given that this draft was heavy-and-deep with swingmen and lacking in bigs, I would have thought that Thorn would have traded the pick, possibly trading down for more picks. Instead, he drafted with the #15 pick Antoine Wright, a 6'7" swingman. I will discuss Wright in a bit. The Nets have also let their only true PF, Brian "Veal" Scalabrine, get away as a free agent to Boston. Scalabrine may only have been a back up PF, but the Nets have no depth at that position and the Celtics offered him only $3 million a year for 5 years.

How bare is the Nets' cupboard? Well, most teams have 2 to 3 players from their roster play on their summer league team in addition to their draft picks. For example, the Lakers have Vujacic and Bobbitt playing on their summer team. New Jersey has no one from the roster on their summer league team and the only draft picks on the team are Wright and their 2004 second round pick, Christian Drejer. The Nets are getting trashed in the summer league, losing both of their games by over 20 points and getting outrebounded by almost 20 boards per game. Antoine Wright has been unimpressive in summer league play, shooting just 27.6%. 6'9" Christian Drejer is shooting even worse - 25.0% - and has averaged only 1.5 rpg. It is really hard to learn anything when your team is losing badly, so the summer league is going to be a waste for Wright.

What is the results of Thorn's last three disastrous years? Kidd is 32 and is what keeps the Nets above .500 in the weakest division in the NBA (and probably in the history of sports). The Nets probably have three years until his retirement. My guess is that once Kidd retires, the Nets will revert to their perennial lottery ways that Kidd broke when he came there.

Lakers SPL Story Lines

I wrote this on 7/7 (Link)
The Andrew Bynum Storyline
How much potential does this guy have? His measurements and stats sound great, but how do they translate on to the court?

How raw is he? Are the Lakers going to be able to play him for 10-15 mpg this season or should they send him to the NBDL?

The Other Bigs Storyline
Let's face it - Brian Cook and Slava Medvendenko weren't big successes as back up PF's. They have had their chance to shine and I don't think they have any upside. This summer, Douthit and Turiaf will be battling to show they deserve their roster spots.

The Sasha Vujacic Storyline
Sasha sucked last year. He shot only 28.2%, 27.0% on 3ptrs. He lacked the strength to cover SG and the quickness to cover PG. Can Sasha turn it around this season? Has he hit the weight room since the end of last season? Can he get his shot back?

The Other Guards Storyline
Tierre Brown is gone, Kobe doesn't have a back up, so the guards in camp definitely have a chance at a roster spot. I know the board has been unimpressed with Von Wafer and it sounds like he will get some stiff competition. Devin Green sounds like an incredible physical specimen, but can he actually play? Smush Parker and Tony Bobbitt are experienced SG's but don't seem to have what it takes to make it in the NBA. Will Conroy is a true PG, but no one thought he was worth drafting. Lots of questions, but the SPL should determine if there are any answers in this group for the Lakers.

Trading for a veteran PF

I wrote this on 6/30 (Link)
Some suggested on a thread getting a veteran PF with two years left on his contract to support the team until Bynum is ready for significant minutes but comes off the cap the same time as Grant's contract. Based on that, I looked for all veteran (at least 29) PF's who played at least 25 mpg with 2 years left on their contracts. This is what I came up with:

PJ Brown of New Orleans
35, averaged 10.8 ppg and 9.0 rpg in 34.4 mpg.

Proposed trade
George, Atkins and Jones for Brown and Speedy Claxton

Why would New Orleans do it?
They are a rebuilding club and a 35 year old PF isn't a part of their long term plans. As they drafted PG Chris Paul and they hope to re-sign PG Dan Dickau, they don't need Speedy Claxton. George or Jones will be their starting SF and Atkins will provide a veteran to back up their young PG's. They will be far enough under the cap to offer a big contract to a young PF like Chandler, Swift, Radmanovic or Brown. The expiring contracts will allow them to probably offer another max contract next off-season.

Why would the Lakers do it?
Brown is a professional and can still get the job down at 35. He will be great at teaching the young players how to practice and play every night. Speedy gives the Lakers an upgrade over Atkins and a small, quick point guard to cover the small, quick point guards in the league. It doesn't cost the Lakers any of their best players (Bryant, Odom, Butler, Mihm) and it frees up an additional roster space on their overcrowded roster.

Joe Smith of Milwaukee
29, averaged 11.0 ppg and 7.3 rpg in 30.6 mpg.

Proposed trade
Divac and Cook for Smith

Why would Milwaukee do it?
They are a rebuilding club well under the salary cap. The Buck trade away Smith, buy out Divac's contract and then offer a big contract to a young PF like Chandler, Swift, Radmanovic or Brown. They then re-sign Redd to give them a young starting five of T.J. Ford, Redd, Mason, FA PF and Bogut. Cook gives them a back up C in case Gadzuric bolts in free agency.

Why would the Lakers do it?
After Divac's contract is bought out, he would return to the Lakers, so this trade costs them only Cook and Smith is a clear upgrade over Cook.

Austin Croshere of Indiana
30, averaged 8.9 ppg and 5.1 rpg in 25.0 mpg.

Proposed trade
Divac and George for Croshere and David Harrison

Why would Indiana do it?
Over $20 million in salary and luxury tax savings. Croshere is riduciously overpaid for his contributions and the only reason he averaged 25 mpg last season was because of all of the suspensions. Croshere will earn almost $9 million this season and $9.5 million next season. The Pacers buy out Divac's contract to save even more money.

Why would the Lakers do it?
Croshere's shooting range will spread the floor for Odom and Bryant. The Lakers also get a young C for the troubles in 22 year old, 7-0, 280 David Harrison. After Divac's contract is bought out, he would return to the Lakers, so this trade costs them only George and the Lakers need a PF far more than another SF.

Other PF's considered
Jonathon Bender of Indiana, who I considered too injury-prone
Maurice Taylor of New York, who I considered not good enough to consider
Brian Skinner of Sacramento, who I considered not good enough (and I couldn't figure out a trade)
Danny Fortson of Seattle, but I couldn't figure out a trade

Disappointed with no trades on draft day

I wrote this on 6/29, the day after the draft (Link)
I am one of Mitch's biggest supporters on this board, but I am disappointed that no trade was made last night. We have too many SF's. With 12 guaranteed contracts, Luke, Douthit and now Bynum, Turiaf and Von Wafer, we have way too many players. Last night was a golden opportunity to make at least one trade and to use the second round picks as deal sweetners. Mitch has a challenging summer in front of him if he is going to get the roster reduced and re-balanced in time for opening night.

Commments on a Fox News report on possible amnesty cuts

I wrote this on 6/28 (Link) in a thread about a FoxNews report on possible amnesty cuts
I don't understand Jalen Rose (Toronto), Theo Ratliff (Portland) and Raef LaFrentz (Boston). Cutting the player only makes sense if the team is over the luxury tax level. According to HoopsHype, Toronto is at $47 mill in salaries, Portland at $49 mil, and Boston at $46 mil. Portland can get lower by not renew Van Exel's contract (as expected). Those teams are going to add draft picks, re-sign some free agents and sign some new ones, but I don't see them going high enough in payroll to make eating Rose's, Ratliff's or LaFrentz's salary worthwhile.

Why no rumors about second round picks?

I wrote this on 6/28 (Link)
A mystery to me is why there has been no rumors about the Lakers trading their #37 and #39 pick. With 12 contracts, Walton, Douthit and the #10 pick, there isn't any room for on the roster for the picks. I read somewhere once that Mitch was contacting teams at the end of the first round about trading the two second round picks for theirs, but I haven't heard anything more. Memphis is rumored to want to sell their pick because of financial problems - why not send $3 million plus the two second rounders (who don't get guaranteed contracts) to Memphis for their pick? DraftExpress.com has a story up on "Reports out of Houston suggest that a deal is on the table which would see the Rockets trading out of the 1st round." But it is Atlanta that is mentioned, not the Lakers.

We have heard so many rumors about the Lakers that I find it odd that a trade that makes a lot of sense we have heard nothing about.

Now, it looks like the Lakers wanted two players they thought would be available when they picked.

OT - Celtic fans delusional about their young players

I posted this on 6/27 (Link)
I have been cruising the Celtic boards since it became obvious that the Payton-Fox-Pick for Mihm-Atkins-Jones was such a steal for the Lakers. I have been consistently amazed at how much the Celtic fans love Danny Ainge. To them, he is one of the best GM's in the league because he drafts so well. I am not a good evaluator of talent, but when I look at the stats for the C's young players, I just can't find that awesome potential that they see. So, I thought I would pull some together comments C fans made in a recent thread and then show how those Celtic players compare to similar Laker players.

Al Jefferson
Celtic fan comments
"...hoping that Big Al will be the next Amare? (The one thing I'm sure of, actually.)"

"...once AJ starts dropping double doubles every night."

"What can you say? This kid can play and play with the big boys...My opinion on him probably carries some green glasses, but this kid is for real, good NBA body, great instincts and length. Not afraid to mix it up with anyone. I know he has not shown it (well he did in pre-season)but this guy actually has a mid-range game also. He is quick to the ball and even though he tended to get lost on D sometimes (okay...most of the time) he made up for some of it with athleticism and quickness. mark it down here...absolute STUD in his third season."

"If Big Al pans out and turns into a star, all we need to do is find him a side-kick."

"...I think it is highly likely that Al Jefferson will be the only one of the group to ever play on an All-Star team."

"19 year old high school kid. You all saw it...if he works as hard as Perk...Franchise cornerstone."

"never having played against any real competition, could not be more raw than he was as a rookie. He is going to be an all-star in this league. As high as people tout him on this board, we can't adjust expectations high enough."

Stats
A. Jefferson - 71 gms, 14.8 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.77 bpg
B. Cook - 72 gms, 15.1 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.36 bpg

My Comments
Jefferson was drafted out of high school, so he could improve significantly in the next few years. But right now, isn't putting up future All-Star stats.

Delonte West
Celtic fan comments
"i love his confidence and attitude. he's a winner. whether he develops into an all star PG or is just a great 6th/7th man on a great team, that's fine. he'll be a key player in getting #17."

"First, let me say I love the IDEA of Delonte's potential. Payton obviously loves him, and that's a nice start. But no matter how you slice it, he's a combo guard, not a pure point guard either, and how many of THEM have we had to deal with. Countless. I'm not so much down on Delonte as I am very, very skeptical as to his eventual value to the team. I fear he's no better than a solid combo guard, off the bench. Not bad, but not great. In other words, what you might expect to get at that draft pick level."

"I still belive Delonte can be our PG. I think he can do it all. If he can learn to post up like GP, and still keep his outside shooting threat, then his left hand passing and smooth style will pay big dividends for the C's. I am not giving up on DW just yet as a PG for the Celtics."

"He's a nice player, but he falls into the same catergory as Banks--small 2 guards who are decent passers."

"Dennis Johnson Type with a better shot. He's a champion, very smart, very tough. Anyone remember him tangling with stoudemire in Phoenix. May not be an all star but probably in the mode of a Michael Cooper, Derek fisher type. He is definately a guy that will contribute to a championship."

"...smooth and confident, with a good shot and a good feel for the game. He'll be a solid rotation guy."

"you can't know what this kid can do from his numbers and appearances last season. Many rookies would have fallen behind with the two injuries. He's going to be better than even his fans on this board believe. All star would be a stretch, but an essential leader and contributor to #17."

Stats
D. West - 39 gms, 13.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 1.4 apg, 0.54 spg, 2.21 A/TO, 42.6 FG%
T. Brown - 76 gms, 14.0 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 2.0 apg, 0.42 spg, 2.09 A/TO, 35.6 FG%

My Comments
Stats very comparable to Tierrable, a player no one in the NBA should want to be compared to.

Kendrick Perkins
Celtic fan comments
"he's already shown he can play D, rebound and be a force inside. he plays his a$$ off, and you can already see he has the celtic pride. i honestly dont care if all he ever becomes is a solid 8 and 8 kind of guy. with pierce, davis, jefferson, etc, we really dont need him to be a big scorer. he could be a perfect fit on a championship team."

"Perk shows some really intruiging flashes but is still so raw--I really want him to be CHarles Oakley v2.0 !"

"[H]e is, the best rebounder and shot blocker we have."

"Another project. I found it very hard to get on the "Give Perk Minutes" bandwagon simply because I saw a very raw player who didn't know to be an enforcer without being a thug, had no offensive skills and still needs tons of time/development/patience. Again, I'm not "down" on Perkins so much as wondering what his arc will actually produce. Does anyone really expect him to deliver more than 10 points and 8 rebounds? OK, maybe 10 rebounds, which is awesome for us."

"High School kid, 19 years old. In one game with extended minutes he grabbed 13 rebounds, in a few other games he had 5 blocks. And always created an immediate physical presence on the court in the mode of Dave Cowens whenever he stepped on the floor. This, from a 19 year old moose who has a burning work ethic and desire to win. Not someone you trade. With time I feel like he will become alot better than most people think."

"Perk may never have much of an offensive game, but I think he can become a taller Ben Wallace."

"has the long arms, strength and body to trouble any post player in the league. 6'10, but with a higher reach than most centers and a wingspan like the Spruce Goose. Better athleticism and lateral movement than you would expect. Great hands. Needs big minutes yesterday. Will make an all star team before all is said and done."

Stats
K. Perkins - 60 gms, 9.1 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.62 bpg, 47.1 FG%
V. Divac - 15 gms, 8.7 mpg, 2.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.07 bpg, 41.9 FG%

My Comments
Perkins went pro out of high school and last year was his second year. He has a long way to go statistically to meet the expectations of many of the fans.

Justin Reed
Celtic fan comments
"i love this kid and his potential. he's already got the ability to shut down the other team's best player(ie kobe and lebron). once the refs get to know him and give him more breaks and his game matures/improves, that ability will only improve. i think we'll see him start to assert himself more offensively as well. he was all-SEC 3 times and averaged something like 17 and 8. he's a great teammate, and i really see him being a solid role player, if not eventual starter, on a championship team."

"Sleeper, better than it appears. I too was very impressed by his defense on lebron when Cleveland had to win to make the playoffs, he gave him fits. All SEC says something as well."

"Same [He'll be a solid rotation guy] for Justin Reed, will be a very good defensive player. He kind of reminds me of Jumaine Jones, who never got much playing time here but who has been a solid rotation guy in both Philly and LA. Reed hardly plays, then gets in against some of the top swingmen in the league and smoothly holds his own (I remember him playing great D on Kobe)."

"Big, quick, athletic. A great defender, rebounder and capable scorer. Not a lot of minutes available at his postion right now. Somebody find some, because this kid will be good."

Stats
J. Reed - 23 gms, 5.3 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.13 spg, 51.7 FG%
S. Vujacic - 35 gms, 11.5 mpg, 2.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.34 spg, 28.2 FG%

My Comments
For a guy who fans think is a great rebounder and defender, his rpm and spm were less than Sasha's. I don't see why any fan would get excited about a 23 year old who averages only 5 mpg.

Tony Allen
Celtic fan comments
"Tony Allen does remind me of Ron Artest in a lot of ways, and I really think he could develop into a player as good...so I feel if TA's offseason work ethic is really strong, he may be considered the steal of that draft."

"I saw him play against the Hornets in New Orleans and couldn't believe his scoreline. A lot of everything. And he did do that from time to time until he hit the rookie wall. OK. Fine. And he's an ath-a-lete. Great. But the kid looks like he's got some 'tude, and you have to wonder just many egos Doc will be able to handle. Will he mature AND develop into a great player? Let's face it; he only started cuz Doc didn't want Ricky D to. But do you really, honestly believe Tony Allen will develop a consistent J, which is the whole point of being a 2 guard?"

"A mixed bag, but also expendable with the log jam that we have at the position. He definately plays D and can actually shoot the mid-range jumper. A pretty good slasher (when/If his team mates see him) He and Banks actually have the capabilities to be one of the best defensive backcourts in the league, but only time will tell if they can bring this to fruition."

"...not only does he have the talent and the drive to succeed, but he's a winner and a great teammate."

"if he gets a jump shot, a good one, has all star potential. Remains to be seen but either way will be a very solid role player."

"shooting guard who can't shoot and is a tweener. Not a great ball handler. Good defender and we love the insane dunks, but we are still waiting for the rest of the game to develop."

Stats
Walton had a terrible start to his season and ended well, so I am going to compare his best month, April, to Allen's best month, March
T. Allen - 11 gms, 20.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.00 spg, 46.4 FG%
L. Walton - 10 gms, 18.1 mpg, 6.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.80 spg 46.2 FG%

My Comments
He better play good D as he doesn't rebound or pass. With Pierce and Davis on the roster, it is hard to see how he is going to get enough minutes to develop.

Marcus Banks
Celtic fan comments
"the sky is the limit here. with his athleticism, he could be the perfect PG for years to come with the style danny wants. when he improves his shot and gets more comfortable out there, there's no reason to think he cant be an all star. just his defense alone makes me giddy. not just the steals and hustle plays, but the constant pressure he puts on the opposing PG. if he makes the other team take an extra 2-3 seconds to get up the court every time down, that's absolutely huge over the course of a game, and has to help us win."

"Phenomenal speed, great penetrator, dangerous if streaky scorer. But we want a real point guard, to get to the promised land. Is he Chauncey Billups, or a bust?"

"...into the same catergory as Banks--small 2 guards who are decent passers."

"I think Marcus has the ability and raw talent that could become a solid back up point guard in this league (you can't teach that quickness and natural desire to play D) However, his head, like a few others on this team, is the big question to me."

"I think it's fair to say that Banks is already one of the best defensive points in the league. Also, his playmaking improved and in more than a few games he completely changed the outcome by both his offense and defense, even in the playoffs. Also, his intensity is a good tone setter for the entire team...The sky is the limit for this kid, just take the reins off"

"shooting guard who can't shoot in a point guard's body. Great defender, but we are still waiting for the rest of the game to develop."

Stats
M. Banks - 81 gms, 14.1 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 1.9 apg, 0.78 spg, 1.96 A/TO, 40.2 FG%
T. Brown - 76 gms, 14.0 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 2.0 apg, 0.42 spg, 2.09 A/TO, 35.6 FG%

My Comments
Again, stats very comparable to Tierrable, a player no one in the NBA should want to be compared to.

"Risers" and "Sliders"

I wrote this on 6/27 (Link)
Celticblog.com has a post saying that players who were picked higher than intially expected tend to be busts and players that were picked lower than initially expected tend to be good picks. For example, it cites in the 2003 draft that Marcus Banks and Troy Bell were "Risers" and T. J. Ford, Luke Ridnour, Leandrinho Barbosa and Josh Howard were "Sliders".

I thought I would look at the "Risers" and "Sliders" coming into this draft. The only website I could find that offered their earlier versions of their mock draft was RealGM, which has their Version 6.1 from 6/26 and their Version 1 from 5/25. I don't know how much of the change is players stock rising or falling and how much is just poor work by the folks at RealGM.

The Big "Risers"
================
Channing Frye from #30 to #8
Martell Webster from #18 to #3
Wayne Simien from #26 to #17
Hakim Warrick from #17 to #9
Ike Diogu from #28 to #21

The Big "Sliders" part I (Guys still in the first round)
========================================================
Johan Petro from #8 to #22
Chris Taft from #9 to #23
Gerald Green from #3 to #14
Jarrett Jack from #10 to #16

The Big "Sliders" part II (Guys fell out of first round)
========================================================
Charlie Villanueva - fell from #15
Randolph Morris - fell from #19
Angelo Gigli - fell from #21
Francisco Garcia - fell from #22
Kennedy Winston - fell from #23
Ronny Turiaf - fell from #25
Erazem Lorbek - fell from #27

       Version 6.1         Version 1           Change
 1 MIL Bogut               Bogut               None
 2 ATL M. Williams         Paul                +2
 3 POR Webster             Green               +15
 4 NOR D. Williams         M. Williams         +2
 5 CHA Paul                Felton              -3
 6 UTA Felton              D. Williams         -1
 7 TOR Granger             Splitter            +4
 8 NYK Frye                Petro               +22
 9 GSW Warrick             Taft                +8
10 LAL Vasquez             Jack                +3
11 ORL Wright              Granger             +1
12 LAC Korolev             Wright              +???
13 CHA Graham              Vasquez             +1
14 MIN Green               Graham              -11
15 NJN May                 Villanueva          +???
16 TOR Jack                Ukic                -6
17 IND Simien              Warrick             +9
18 BOS Bynum               Webster             +???
19 MEM Ukic                Morris              -3
20 DEN Ilyasova            Blatche             +???
21 PHO Diogu               Gigli               +7
22 DEN Petro               Garcia              -14
23 SAC Taft                Winston             -14
24 HOU Blatche             Fernandez           -4
25 SEA McCants             Turiaf              +???
26 DET Head                Simien              +???
27 UTA Lee                 Lorbek              +???
28 SAS Gelabele            Diogu               +1
29 MIA Hodge               Gelabele            +???
30 NYK Andriuskevicius     Frye                +???

Pulled out of draft
Splitter
Fernandez