Lakers trade targets and their timings

Posted on LakersGround.net on 8/28/07.

Lots of posters are disappointed that the Lakers haven't made any big deals this summer. My impression is that the timing has been right for the Lakers to trade for the players they have targeted. Here are what I think those targets are based upon rumors we have heard and when I think a trade is most likely to happen:

Jermaine O'Neal of the Pacers near the trade deadline
The Pacers are coming off a 35-47 after a 41-41 season. They are a small market team and have the 9th highest payroll in the NBA. They have a new coach and point to their initial success after the trade with the Warriors for reasons of optimism. My guess is that the Lakers FO think that the Pacers aren't going to make the playoffs (and lots of bloggers and ESPN expertsp agree). If the Pacers realize before the trade deadline that they aren't going to make the playoffs, then they will probably want to slash payroll. Murphy and Dunleavy are probably untradeable because their big $$$ contracts run through '10-'11. Trading O'Neal for expiring contracts would tremendously improve the team's bottom line while better positioning the team for the future.

Yi Jianlian of the Bucks at the trade deadline
I don't see any point to the Bucks trading Yi earlier. He is exactly the type of player they need. The Bucks position has to be that if Yi is going to sit out the season, he is going to lose out on millions, embarrass his country, disappoint his government (who wants him to get as much NBA experience as possible before the 2008 Beijing Olympics), and have his marketability seriously damage. If Yi is going to shaft the Bucks, I expect the Bucks to try to hurt him as much as possible in return. So I think the Bucks will do a waiting game and then trade him at the last possible moment. If the Bucks trade him, they will probably use him to trade one of their bad contracts and/or acquire a future high draft pick. The longer they wait, the better idea they will have on who they want to get rid of and/or what team is likely to have a future high draft pick.

Marcus Camby of the Nuggests near the trade deadline
The Nuggets are coming off a 45-37 season in the weakest division of the Western Conference. They needed a 16-6 finish to even make the playoffs and then they had a first round exit. They have the 3rd highest payroll in the NBA. The salaries of their 5 most expensive players will increase after the '07-'08 season by $5.2M to $68.2M. They have very little depth - they are counting on Kenyon Martin to play back up C (a stretch for the 6'9" injury-plagued player); their tallest bench player besides Martin is 6'8"; their back up PG and SG are Chucky Atkins and Yakhouba Diawara; and they don't really have a back up SF. An injury could easily knock them out of playoffs. If the Nuggets struggle, they could be open to trading Camby for an expiring contract to get them out of the luxury tax.