Laker Mysteries

I wrote this on 8/1 (Link). Almost immediately after, a lot of the mysteries were solved.
There are no rumors coming out of the Lakers organization. The Lakers seem to have become very tight-lipped since the rumored Boozer trade and Bender trade. Also, Mitch doesn't hype players and tries to keep expectations low. Most GM's would have been touting how Wafer and Parker played in the SPL, but not the Lakers. Net sum - no news from Lakerland. However, there are many questions that need an answer this off-season. Here is what I call the "Laker Mysteries" and some of their possible answers:

What is happening with Von Wafer?
When he was drafted with the 39th pick, everyone said "Who?!?!?" But Von Wafer did very well in the SPL. After quickly correcting a problem of leaning too much on his shots, Wafer shot 65% from 3pt land. He took over one game with a tremendous scoring burst in the last 4 minutes. According to Mike@LG, he was the most talented Laker SPL player since Kobe. And since the SPL ended, we have heard nothing. Turiaf signed a contract, but no contract for Wafer even though the Lakers are much deeper at PF (Brown, Grant, Cook, Medvedenko) than at guard (Kobe and Sasha). The options:

The Lakers are using him as trade bait
Players who sign a contract can't be traded for 3 months. The Lakers are holding off signing him so that he can be traded now. The problem with this idea is that Wafer really fits a major need for the Lakers and other teams are unlikely to value a second-round pick that has only played in the SPL (it's my thought that teams value their picks more than other clubs do because they have so much committed to their success).

The Lakers don't have a roster spot and want him to play international ball for at least one year
Yes, the Lakers have 14 guaranteed contracts - Bryant, Grant, Odom, Brown, Divac, George, Mihm, Medvenko, Bynum, Jones, Vujacic, Cook, Profit and Walton - and if they sign a MLE and LLE, there isn't room for Wafer. However, I think the Lakers would prefer to have Vujacic as a fifth guard (if not in the NBDL) and aren't counting on Profit to make the roster, so even if the MLE and LLE are both guards, there is still room for Wafer. Grant and/or Divac are likely to go (see below) to create a roster spot for Wafer.

The Lakers have to chose between Parker and Wafer on the roster and Wafer is losing
Smush Parker played well in the SPL (see below) and because he is a free agent, the Lakers have to either sign him or lose him. If Wafer plays international ball, the Lakers keep his rights. Parker is more of a PG than Wafer and the Lakers currently don't have any PG's signed. So if the Lakers only have one roster spot for a young guard, it makes more sense to sign Parker and arrange for Wafer to play international ball. The problems with this idea are that, per Mike@LG, Wafer played better than Parker in the SPL and given that Parker has played in the league before and Wafer is only 19, Wafer has a lot more upside than Parker.

The Lakers are waiting for things to shake out
The Lakers are trying to make trades, sign players waived for amnesty reasons, sign free agents, etc. Not signing Wafer allows the Lakers to see how everything falls out and then make a decision. If their roster fills up, then Wafer can play international ball for a year. If that's true, why did the Lakers sign Turiaf? Everything applies equally to him and there is a less of a need for him than for Wafer.

The Lakers want to use MLE money to sign Wafer, but are waiting on deals before using any MLE money
I get the impression from recent Celtics' moves that if a team wants to sign their second round pick to more than second round money, they can do so by using money from the MLE. However, the Lakers aren't likely to do that until they know what free agent(s) they are going to sign with the MLE. Hence, the wait.

What is happening with Smush Parker?
Smush played well in the SPL. Mike@LG's assessment:

Quote:

Good backup PG. 2-way player. Not as quick as Barbosa, not as explosive as Dooling to the basket. Definitely NBA level athleticism and certainly above average (8/10) overall. With continued improved skills, would really be a borderline starting PG in the triangle offense. I would've preferred him over Fisher.

As the Lakers have no PG's on roster, Parker feels a tremendous need. However, I have seen nothing about Parker since the end of the SPL. Because Parker is a free agent, he wants to sign a contract with some team on August 2nd. The options:

He's not that good
The OC Register on July 21st wrote: "Smush Parker did well enough for the Lakers' summer-league team that he might be invited to training camp." The Lakers could be looking at signing Gary Payton and Tyronn Lue (or other veteran PG's) with their MLE and LLE, probably leaving no room for Parker. Under this scenario, Parker will get an invite to training camp where he can battle for the 15th spot, but will probably be cut for someone with a guaranteed contract. Not being a true PG, there are any other teams that he can try to latch on with. However, the Lakers are very thin at guard and could sign Payton, Lue, Wafer and Parker, send Sasha down to the NBDL and still have 5 guards on the roster. See more below on PG's

The Lakers are waiting for things to shake out
Once the Lakers make whatever trades, signings, etc., then they will decide what to do with Parker. The problem with this is that if they wait too long, Parker might sign with another club in the NBA or overseas. Unless the Lakers make moves to land both a starting PG and back up PG, they need Parker, so why take the risk?

The Lakers want to give Parker MLE money, but are waiting on deals before using any MLE money
If the Lakers want to give Parker more than LLE money, they could be waiting to see what they do with their MLE money before deciding any contract. However, I think Parker would be happy for the vet minimum or the LLE.

What is happening with Devin Green?
Green was the third best guard on the SPL. He's length, hustle and defense would fit well with the triangle, but he needs to improve his jumpshot to play in the NBA. An excellent candidate for the NBDL or international ball. Again, no news after the SPL.

He's not that good
And he may not be. The Lakers could invite him to training camp and let him fight for the last roster spot. I doesn't sound like he played well enough in the SPL for other teams to try to lure him away. If he plays international ball, the Lakers don't have any rights to him.

Will Brian Grant be waived?
Ideally, waiving Grant saves the Lakers $30 million over two years. However, who are the Lakers going to have as back up C if they waive Grant? They will probably use Kwame, but if Kwame is injured, they only have Bynum (not big enough for more than 10 mpg) and a bunch of PF's. If the Lakers acquire a big to take Grant's place, the cost of the new big will probably come close to the cost of keeping Grant.

For example, let's say the Lakers are involved with a three way S&T where they send Divac to Boston with the Miami pick and get Jerome Williams from New York (who winds up with Antoine Walker). Just an idea to discuss. The Lakers would have to pay luxury tax on Williams so his contract would cost $12 million the first year and $13 million the next. Net out the cost of buying Divac's contract and the Lakers save only $7 million. And that is at the cost of the Miami pick.

Any veteran big to take Grant's place is going to cost at least $5 million a year. The Lakers aren't going to be able to sign a good back up big with the MLE for two years, so they are going to have to trade for one. When you add the cost of the trade with the cost of the new big man, it doesn't make sense to waive Grant. Now, the Lakers could gamble that Kwame doesn't get injured and not get a big man to replace Grant. Or they could use Divac as their back up C. I think those are just too risky.

Who will the Lakers have in the NBDL?
Andrew Bynum is one choice as the Lakers have said that he won't get many minutes this season. However, the reason he won't get many minutes is that his 17-year old body is not up to many minutes in the paint with NBA-sized players. The Lakers will probably keep him with the club to keep an eye on him and to give him as much NBA minutes as his body can take.

Sasha Vujacic is another candidate for the NBDL as he is a project that needs lots of PT if he is every going to be a successful combo guard. At the same time, Sasha was easily frustrated in the SPL and playing in the NBDL in a system that doesn't fit him could easily cause him to regress. We will have to wait and see.

Wafer, Parker and Green are other candidates, but will they even be signed by the Lakers? Again, we will have to wait and see.

What are the Lakers going to do with their expiring contracts?
Divac, George, Medvedenko and Jones have a little over $15 million worth of contracts that expire at the end of this season. Divac's contract can be bought out for $2 million, making him very attractive to a team that wants to trade a contract worth up to $6.74 million and get nothing back. However, expiring contracts are generally used to get (1) players who have expensive long-term contracts that teams no longer want or (2) players that are going to be free agents and aren't going to re-sign with their team. The Lakers aren't interested in type #1 players and aren't willing to offer a long enough contract to make trading for a type #2 player worthwhile. If Divac isn't traded, his contract will be bought out. The Lakers could then re-sign Divac, but I think his back isn't good enough to make bringing him back worthwhile.

What are the Lakers going to do for a starting PG?
Sasha, Smush and Von are not up to starting. The Lakers lost out on Antonio Daniels (put me in the "offering a 30-year old career back up a 5-year contract is nuts" camp). Beyond that, there doesn't appear to be any good options. Jason Williams? Terrible fit for the triangle. Gary Payton? Bad fit, hated Phil, screwed the Lakers and is too old. Tyronn Lue? Experience with triangle, but too small, played only 46 games in two years with Phil and averaged only 4.4 apg in 29.7 mpg that last two seasons. The answer to this mystery will probably determine the answers to most of the other mysteries.