Fisher was a very good signing!!!

Posted on LakersGround.net on 9/4/07.

I was really shocked on how negative people are on the Fisher signing. Here are some sample comments from the Grade the offseason thread:

Made a mediocre vet pickup (not counting in the overpayment)

I didn't like the Fisher signing

Signed Fisher for too much money and lost potential free agents

Derek Fisher was an absolutely horrific signing

Overpaid for Fisher, which has an opportunity cost greater than simply paying Fish more than what he is worth/would have gotten otherwise

The Lakers #1 need coming into this off-season was upgrading their PG position. Smush, their starter for the last two years, was not re-signed (and good riddance). The only PG on their roster was Farmar, who hit the rookie wall hard last offseason:
Up to 1/18: 6.3 ppg in 17.3 mpg, shooting 48.9%, 36.3% on 3's, 1.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.68 spg, 0.05 bpg, 1.03 TO, 2.33 A-to-TO
After 1/18: 2.4 ppg in 12.8 mpg, shooting 30.2%, 26.1% on 3's, 1.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.53 spg, 0.15 bpg, 1.00 TO, 1.35 A-to-TO

So last season, Farmar didn't have enough stamina to play back up minutes the full NBA season. Farmar was only 19 at the beginning of the season and had only one college season under his belt, so it is not surprising. He hit the wall at 38 games after playing 37 games in college. Farmar did start in the playoffs, but then only averaged 22 mpg. I expect him to have more stamina this season, but I am doubtful he has the stamina to play starter minutes the full NBA season.

But what about Critterton? He showed lots of promise in the summer league and I think he and Farmar are the future for the Lakers at PG. However, he will be a month younger than Farmar was at the start of last season and he also has one year of college basketball. I would expect him to hit the rookie wall this season just like Farmar did last season. Also, I feel uncomfortable counting on someone based only on summer league play.

The Lakers need to win this season if they are to have any hope of turning things around with Kobe. To start the season with only Farmar and Critterton at the point would have been suicide. The Lakers needed a veteran PG to serve as a bridge until Farmar and Critterton can handle the PG position themselves. The earliest I see that happening is the '08-'09 season, with the '09-'10 season more likely.

Checking RealGM, here were the PG possibilities:
Troy Hudson (became available late, no team is interested)
Gary Payton (Ancient, no team is interested)
Charlie Bell (RFA, so very unlikely. The Bucks were awful with him as their starting PG)
Dee Brown (played only 450 min last season and had bad stats)
Mike Wilks (career 3rd string PG)
Earl Boykins (A 5'5" PG isn't a good fit for the triangle)
Jeff McInnis (Couldn't get PT on the Bobcats team)
Brevin Knight (a 5'10" PG isn't a good fit for the triangle, injury prone)
Jannero Pargo (a career back up who got big minutes after Paul went down)
Eddie House (a decent possibility)
Ronnie Price (played only 563 min in his 2nd season)
Maurice Williams (The Lakers wouldn't have been able to compete with the Bucks' offer)
Steve Francis (he wanted to go back to Houston and money wasn't an issue)
Chucky Atkins (I will say no more)
Jason Hart (career back up)
Steve Blake (Denver preferred Atkins over him)
Jacque Vaughn (I didn't see him leaving the Spurs)
Chauncey Billups (He wasn't leaving the Pistons)

The best possibilities were Boykins, Knight, House and Blake. I think that fact that all 4 of those players were spurned by the former team speaks volumes about how good they are.

Let's look at the career shooting percentages of Fisher and those 4:
Fisher - .397 FG%, .368 3P%, .458 eFG%
Boykins - .417 FG%, .350 3P%, .457 eFG%
Knight - .416 FG%, .150 3P%, .418 eFG%
House - .408 FG%, .381 3P%, .471 eFG%
Blake - .403 FG%, .370 3P%, .483 eFG%
Boykins has a better FG% than Fisher, but a worse 3P% and a similar eFG%. Knight doesn't have 3 point range. House has a better shooting %, but that has always come against the other team's second string. Blake's career FG% and 3P% are very close to Fisher's. None of these guys are clearly better shooters than Fisher.

What sets Fisher apart from those 4 is his triangle and Lakers experience. Every player on the Lakers roster except Karl has at least 1 year of triangle experience. Karl and Critterton are the only new players to this year Lakers team. If the Lakers had signed someone besides Fisher, they would have had to spend precious training camp time teaching them the the Lakers' offensive and defensive system. My guess is that any of the 4 had been signed instead of Fisher, Farmar would have been the starter.

So, the Lakers used their MLE to fill their #1 need and they signed the best player available to fill that need. How is that not an excellent signing? Several people have complained that the Lakers paid too much for Fisher and gave him too many years. Here are some comparable signings:
Derek Fisher: $14M over 3 years
James Posey: $7 to $7.5 million over 2 years
Desmond Mason: $10.3M over 2 years
Morris Peterson: $23M over 4 years
Jamaal Magloire: $4M for 1 year
Chucky Atkins: $3.2M this season, $3.4M next season, team option for 3rd
Steve Blake: $12M over 3 years, team option for 3rd year
Jason Kapono: $24M over 5 years

I can see the argument it Fisher is overpaid by $0.5-1M per year and there should have been a team option for the third year. OTOH, I think Fisher had all the leverage in the negotiations. He knew the Lakers badly needed him. He had other options - Houston, Boston and Miami probably all would have pursued him. Fisher took a pay cut from what he would have had if he had stayed in Utah. I think the Lakers preferred to slightly overpay Fisher than risk him getting away.

Let's say that the Lakers had done some hard negotiating with Fisher and signed him for the same deal that Atkins got. Who would they have signed with the rest of the money? The only players that signed for ~$2M that I can think of were Ime Udoka and Brevin Knight. Knight wasn't a fit for the Lakers before they signed Fisher and definitely not afterwards. I don't see Udoka picking the Lakers over the Spurs unless the Lakers paid him more than the Spurs, which they couldn't have.

Many posters have said that they would have preferred a defensive-minded SF instead of Fisher. I don't understand why. The Lakers have 5 players who can play at SF - Walton, Odom, Bryant, Radmanovic and Evans. A defensive SF would add a new skill set to that mix, but the incremental value of a 6th SF is likely to be small. The Lakers were 24th in overall defensive efficiency, 17th in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in forcing turnovers, 18th in allowing offensive rebounds and 20th in FT's made per FG attempt (link). To me, that implies the biggest Laker problem was with PG defense not forcing enough turnovers. I don't think Fisher is going to force a lot of turnovers, but hopefully Farmar and Critterton will expend lots of energy on the defensive side knowing that there is a veteran PG to take up the extra minutes. If the Lakers had offered Posey the same contract they offered Fisher, then the Lakers would be very unlikely to be able to sign a vet PG.

Lakers +/- by season quarters

Posted on LakersGround.net on 8/31/07.

I found the game logs out on the web, but they only have scoring. Here is the +/- for each laker by season quarter. The quarters were:
10/31 - 12/10 Start of season 14-6
12/12 - 1/20 Odom injured 13-9
1/22 - 3/9 Walton injured, but Odom returns (6-16)
3/11 - 4/18 Odom and Walton are back (9-9)

Brown       86    4  -51   36
Bryant      57   31   26  -11
Bynum      -10   15  -56  -65
Cook        -4   45   30    4
Evans       50    4  -31  -27
Farmar      30    3  -51   28
McKie        -   -5    2   -8
Odom        67   -6   -9   25
Parker      28  -33  -42  -34
Radmanovic  -6  -50  -61    4
Turiaf       8  -37   61  -14
Vujacic      5   23  -32  -43
Walton      52  -22   11  -28
Williams     7   -7   38  -67
Team        74   -7  -33  -40

I really don't know what to make of +/- stats, so hopefully this will spark some enlightening discussion.

Signing Fisher precluded signing Udoka, not re-signing Walton

A series of post in this thread on LakersGround.net on 8/30/07.

I replied to a post with:

Aussiesuede wrote:
The biggest move I'm po'd at was not going after Udoka hard earlier this summer before resigning Luke. I would have much preferred they sign Udoka and let Luke test the market and match whatever offer Luke got.

Luke's signing had nothing to do with signing/not signing Udoka. The Lakers signed Fisher with most of the MLE, leaving them without adequate MLE money to sign Udoka.

IMHO, given that Luke was a starter all of last season, signing him to 75% of the MLE ($4M compared to $5.356M) was a good deal. If Luke tested the market, the Lakers could have easily wound up paying more or losing him altogether.

Aussiesuede replied with:

Udoka signed for $2mil. if care for his daughter was concern #1, then I'm pretty comfortable that Fisher would have accepted the remaining $3.5mil from the MLE. If he would have rather signed with the Clippers for the full MLE instead, then so be it.....

I countered:

Udoka signed for $2mil. if care for his daughter was concern #1, then I'm pretty comfortable that Fisher would have accepted the remaining $3.5mil from the MLE. If he would have rather signed with the Clippers for the full MLE instead, then so be it.....

Arguing about buyout percentages

A series of post in this thread on LakersGround.net on 8/29/07.

I started the discussion by saying:

I don't understand why Denver didn't buy out Martin's contract this off-season.

Aeneas Hunter replied:

This is speculation, but what the heck. KMart has about $59M to go on his contract. He must know that his future prospects are not very good. If I'm KMart, I'm not agreeing to a large discount on my contract. It might be the last sizable contract I ever get.

I replied:

But if he accepts a buyout for 60% of the contract ($35.4M), he gets all $35.4M now instead the $59M spread over 4 years. He can then move on to another team and draw a second salary or start on his life away from basketball. 50-60% of contract value has been the range I have seen for contract buy outs.

activeverb jumped it with:

Many of reported contract buyouts I've seen have been higher, more on the 70-80% range.

To make up a 40% paycut, Martin would probably have to find a full MLE deal, which may not happen -- or may not come from a team he wants to play for. There really isn't a reason for him to risk the money unless he really wants to leave Denver. NBA players don't like to give back money.

I did some research and then posted:

You appear to have the better memory. Recent buyouts:
Foyle 65%
Hudson 80%
Francis 88% <- That's nuts

golakersgo121 tried whacking me with:

He does have a better memory as you did not mention C-Webb's buyout (close to 100%); also 80% of Hudson's Full Value contract can be looked at differently if you consider "guaranteed value" of his contract only...

Then 88% of Fransis's contract does not look as nuts as before, does it?

I replied:

At least I have a better memory than you. Webber's buyout occurred in the middle of the season, so I left it out. The Webber buy out numbers per ESPN.com:

The exact numbers on Webber's buyout from the 76ers, as obtained by ESPN.com, show Webber surrendering nearly $6.5 million for the right to become a free agent and sign with Detroit.

Webber's salary this season and next season have thus been adjusted for leaguewide bookkeeping purposes to $17.6 million and $19 million, down from $20.7 million and $22.3 million.

That's an 85% buyout with half of one of the bought out seasons already gone by. So the 88% number still looks nuts.

I did some more research and posted:

Just to be complete, here are some other buyouts I found:
Eddie Jones - mid-season buyout for his full salary less the pro-rated vet min
Jalen Rose - last cut in training camp, got full salary
Eddie Griffin - mid-season buyout for full salary
Vin Baker - got a deep discount, but there was breach of contract issues

The trend seems to be that if a player is cut in training camp or mid-season, he gets his full salary or his full salary less pro-rated vet min. If the buyout occurs in the summer, the buyout can be from 40-80% (assuming that Francis is an outlier), with recent buyouts going towards the high end of that range.

On the NBA won't let Yi to duck Milwaukee because it is a small market

A series of post in this thread on LakersGround.net on 8/28/07.

I wrote about the Yi situation:

The NBA isn't going to let a draft pick decide to not report to a team that drafted him because it is in too small of a market. Otherwise, the small market teams are doomed to mediocrity.

jbjb replied:

Ever hear of Danny Ferry?

I countered:

Danny Ferry didn't want to go to the Clippers because LA is a small market.

LakerSanity added to jbjb's:

Or Steve Francis?

I said back:

It's not like Danny Ferry got off light. He had to go to Europe for a while. The NBA made some changes to the CBA to make it much harder to do something similar.

I don't remember why Steve Francis didn't want to go to Vancouver. Wikipedia says, "He also publicly announced that he did not want to play for the Grizzlies, citing the distance from his Maryland home, taxes, endorsements, and God's will." Vancouver had some unique issues as a franchise, so I don't think Stern would be willing to twist arms as hard for them. The team left Vancouver less than 2 seasons later.