More thoughts on Garnett trade

Posted on LakersGround.net on 7/31/07.

LakerSanity wrote:
Lamar or Jefferson - slight edge to LO

I agree

LakerSanity wrote:
Butler or Green/Gomes - edge to Minny (Butler and Green about even given relaticely to the time of the trades) and Gomes gives the edge.

As Mike@LG said, Green has a low BB IQ. The only time he has played well is when the C's were tanking. Gomes is OK as a bench player, but got a lot of minutes in Boston because they were so bad. Butler was a #10 pick who average 15.4 ppg his rookie year. Big Edge to the Lakers.

LakerSanity wrote:
Grant or Telfair/Ratliff - HUGE advantage to Minnesota as they get expiring contracts while we got a three year deal worth something like $45 mil. Additionally, Telfair is young and could still have something to offer.

Agree on Ratliff. Telfair has been a bust on two teams, so I wouldn't count on him contributing anything.

LakerSanity wrote:
Miami 1st round pick or 2 1st round picks - HUGE advantage to Minnesota; the Celtics 1st round evens out the Miami 1st rounder, but Minnesota gets their 1st rounder back which is likely a top 5 pick.

The Minny pick doesn't matter. The Clippers get the next non-lottery Minny pick. The C's pick was the next non-lottery Minny pick after the pick to the Clips and one draft. If a team doesn't get a pick within a set number of years, they lose the pick. With Minny trading away KG and having McHale as a GM, they are going to be in the lottery for so long that the draft pick trade was going to expire.

Later I added:

LakerSanity wrote:
^^^The Minny pick does matter being that they will likely be the worst team in the league, which means that pick will not only be in the lottery (i.e. a pick the Clippers thus will not get), but will also be a likely top 5 pick in next years draft (see Mayo or Rose).... it was a pick they otherwise did not have and thus a HUGE part of the trade. They can still lose a pick in later years, but it won't be this pick which will be a VERY HIGH pick. In any case, if they didn't get this pick, they would still lose another pick later... so that logic makes no sense.... they got something they didn't have before, and something that is very valuable (being a top 5 pick).

From Larry Coon's FAQ:

Teams can only trade draft picks five years into the future (for example, if this is the 2005-06 season, then the 2010 pick can be traded, but the 2011 pick can't).

Minny traded the pick to the C's in January 2006. My understanding then is that the C's have to get the 2010 pick. If they don't, that part of the trade gets voided. Minny can't trade back-to-back draft picks, so the C's have to wait at least two drafts after the Clips get the Minny pick. My understanding is that for the C's to get the 2010 pick, the T-Wolves would have to make the playoffs this season. Then, the Clippers would get their 2008 pick and the C's would get the 2010 pick. If the T-Wolves don't make the playoffs next season (which is really, really likely), then the C's won't get a draft pick from Minny.

LakerSanity wrote:
Also, Butler, when he was traded to us, was coming off a very bad year. Green still is seen by many to have superstar potential. That is why I say they were even AT THE TIME. Can't use hindsight in this argument.

He averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg. He played only 68 games that season, so probably his drop off was due to injuries.

If you take away April when the C's were tanking, Green averaged last season 9.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.9 apg and 0.5 spg. Green was healthy the whole season. Per 82games.com PER, Sasha is a better player offensively and defensively than Green. Green has a very low BB IQ. I can't see why any one would look at his stats for his first two years and think he has superstar potential.

Still later I added:

LakerSanity wrote:
Green v. Butler is about league value.... I know for a fact Green is a highly regarded prospect around the league now, and I also know, at the time, Butler has a lot of questions around him (more than Green) which despite his better stats lowered his value to about the same relative worth as Green. We can just disagree there.

I would be shocked if Green is highly regarded around the league, but I can agree with disagreeing.

On the pick, I found something on RealGM:

Minnesota's own 2008 1st round pick to the L.A. Clippers (top 10 protected in the 2008 Draft, top 10 protected in 2009, top 10 protected in 2010, top 10 protected in 2011, and unprotected in the 2012 Draft)

Minnesota's own future 1st round pick to Boston in the "First Allowable Draft", defined below (top 14 protected in the First Allowable Draft, top 5 protected in the Draft following the First Allowable Draft, top 3 protected in all subsequent Drafts through and including the 2011 Draft, and unprotected in the 2012 Draft). If Minnesota's own 1st round pick is not conveyed to Boston by the end of the 1st round of the 2012 Draft, then Minnesota shall instead convey its own 2012 2nd round pick to Boston. [Boston - Minnesota, 1/26/2006]. The "First Allowable Draft" shall be the Draft that occurs two years following the year in which Minnesota satisfies its existing obligation to convey a future first round pick to the LA Clippers in accordance with the LA Clippers

The earliest the pick can go to Boston is 2010 and as long as the T-Wolves are in the Top 10 of the draft, the pick slides out. It's not clear to me, but I think if the T-Wolves don't make it out of the top 10 by the 2010 draft, then the C's get their 2012 second round pick.