Can Odom make the All-Star game?

Posted on LakersGround.net on 7/26/07.

To me, Odom is competing with Josh Howard, Shawn Marion and Mehmet Okur for an All-Star berth (all made it this year). Here are their stats for last season:
Odom:
15.9 ppg in 39.3 mpg, shooting 46.8%, 29.7% on 3's, 9.8 rpg, 4.8 apg, 0.95 spg, 0.57 bpg, 2.91 TO, 1.66 A-to-TO

Howard:
18.9 ppg in 35.1 mpg, shooting 45.9%, 38.5% on 3's, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.17 spg, 0.80 bpg, 1.76 TO, 1.03 A-to-TO

Marion:
17.5 ppg in 37.6 mpg, shooting 52.3%, 31.5% on 3's, 9.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.95 spg, 1.53 bpg, 1.43 TO, 1.18 A-to-TO

Okur:
17.6 ppg in 33.3 mpg, shooting 46.2%, 38.4% on 3's, 7.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.45 spg, 0.48 bpg, 1.56 TO, 1.25 A-to-TO

To me, the most important criteria for being selected an All-Star is ppg, then rpg. Occasionally a low-scoring defensive specialist will get in, but it's normally high scorers that get in. Also, the higher team winning percentage, the higher the chance that a player will be selected.

Odom shot better, out-rebounded and out-assisted Howard and Okur. He tied Marion for rebounding, out-assisted him, but had a lower shooting percentage. All three outscored Odom by 1.6 to 3.0 pts.

The winning percentage for the various teams on 2/2 when the reserves were announced:
Lakers - .609
Mavericks - .808
Suns - .804
Jazz - .660

The winning percentage of the various teams on 2/13 when the replacements were announced:
Lakers - .577
Mavericks - .824
Suns - .765
Jazz - .667

Breaking Odom's stats down by quarter of the season:
1 - 18.4 ppg in 39.7 mpg, shooting 47.7%, 35.8% on 3's, 9.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 0.70 spg, 0.80 bpg, 3.85 TO, 1.32 A-to-TO
2 - Injured
3 - 15.2 ppg in 40.9 mpg, shooting 41.7%, 29.0% on 3's, 10.4 rpg, 4.4 apg, 0.94 spg, 0.35 bpg, 2.76 TO, 1.60 A-to-TO
4 - 14.7 ppg in 39.5 mpg, shooting 52.1%, 18.4% on 3's, 10.4 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.28 spg, 0.56 bpg, 2.17 TO, 2.38 A-to-TO

In the first quarter, Odom put up better scoring, shooting percentage, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks than Okur. If Odom hadn't been injured, the Lakers would have a better winning percentage. My guess - if Odom hadn't been injured last season prior to the All-Star game, he would have made the All-Star game instead of Okur. He may have had a borderline chance of beating out Marion because it would have been the second Laker All-Star versus the Suns' third.

For this season, a big key to if Odom has a chance at the All-Star game is how much scoring Bryant does. In the first quarter of the season, Bryant was averaging 18 shots per game and Odom was averaging 13.2 In the last quarter of the season, Bryant was averaging 29.2 and Odom 10.7. If Odom doesn't average at least 13 shots per game, he doesn't have any hope of making the All-Star game.