Monday, September 10, 2007

Looking back at the '05 off-season - Lakers' options for a PG

Posted on LakersGround.net on 7/19/07.

It's the dog days of the NBA year with nothing happening except an occasional rumor. I am going to make a series of posts reviewing the past in attempt to distill some wisdom from it.

Do you remember the 2005 off-season? Mitch-bashing was almost as popular that off-season as it is this off-season (there wasn't much Mitch-baching in 2006). People were screaming for Mitch to do something useful. My recollection is that many posters were outraged that Mitch hadn't signed Antonio Daniels or Earl Watson to fill our obvious hole at PG. Mitch passed on both of those and many posters responded with disgust at their signings with Washington and Denver respectively. Instead, Mitch wanted a veteran PG on a short contract and the unheralded Smush Parker. The choice for the veteran PG came down to Aaron McKie and Derek Anderson and Mitch chose McKie. Next off-season, Mitch drafted Jordan Farmar and signed Shammon Williams. Did Mitch make the wrong choices?

Smush Parker
'05-'06: 33.8 mpg in 82 games, 11.5 ppg on 44.7% shooting, 36.6% on 3's, 3.3 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.7 stls, 1.8 TO for $745,248, 24 years old
'06-'07: 30.0 mpg in 82 games, 11.1 ppg on 43.6% shooting, 36.5% on 3's, 2.5 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.5 stls, 1.9 TO for $798,112, 25 years old
No more years on contract

Aaron McKie
'05-'06: 8.6 mpg in 14 games, 0.5 ppg on 25.0% shooting, 0.0% on 3's, 1.4 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.1 TO for $2,500,000, 33 years old
'06-'07: 13.1 mpg in 10 games, 2.2 ppg on 64.7% shooting, no 3's, 1.8 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.8 TO for $2,500,000, 34 years old
No more years on contract

Jordan Farmar
'06-'07: 15.1 mpg in 72 games, 4.4 ppg on 42.2% shooting, 32.8% on 3's, 1.7 rebs, 1.9 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.0 TO for $939,120, 20 years old
'07-'08: $1,009,560, 21 years old
'08-'09: $1,080,000 (team option), 22 years old
'09-'10: $1,947,240 (team option), 23 years old
'10-'11: $2,874,126 (qualifying offer), 24 years old

Shammond Williams
'06-'07: 11.5 mpg in 30 games, 3.1 ppg on 40.7% shooting, 40.0% on 3's, 1.3 rebs, 1.0 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.4 TO for $1,750,000, 31 years old
No more years on contract

Antonio Daniels
'05-'06: 28.9 mpg in 79 games, 9.7 ppg on 41.8% shooting, 22.8% on 3's, 2.2 rebs, 3.6 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.1 TO for $5,000,000, 30 years old
'06-'07: 22.0 mpg in 80 games, 7.1 ppg on 44.2% shooting, 30.2% on 3's, 1.9 rebs, 3.6 asts, 0.5 stls, 0.9 TO for $5,400,000, 31 years old
'07-'08: $5,800,000, 32 years old
'08-'09: $6,200,000, 33 years old
'09-'10: $6,600,000, 34 years old

Earl Watson
'05-'06: 22.5 mpg in 70 games, 8.9 ppg on 43.0% shooting, 40.4% on 3's, 2.3 rebs, 4.1 asts, 1.0 stls, 1.9 TO for $5,000,000, 26 years old
'06-'07: 27.9 mpg in 77 games, 9.4 ppg on 38.3% shooting, 32.9% on 3's, 2.4 rebs, 5.7 asts, 1.3 stls, 2.2 TO for $5,400,000, 27 years old
'07-'08: $5,800,000, 28 years old
'08-'09: $6,200,000, 29 years old
'09-'10: $6,600,000, 30 years old
In the middle of the '05-'06 season, Watson was traded from Denver to Seattle in a 4 team, 9 player trade

Derek Anderson
'05-'06: 24.3 mpg in 43 games, 8.1 ppg on 35.6% shooting, 29.9% on 3's, 3.3 rebs, 2.3 asts, 0.5 stls, 1.3 TO for $1,670,000, 31 years old
'06-'07: 23.8 mpg in 50 games, 8.0 ppg on 42.9% shooting, 35.5% on 3's, 2.3 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.0 stls, 1.1 TO for $901,397, 32 years old
In the middle of the '05-'06 season, was traded from Houston to Miami for Gerald Fitch. Miami waived him in the 2006 off-season, eating the second year of his contract and he then signed up with Charlotte for th '06-'07 season

My thoughts
Smush provided more scoring to the Lakers than Daniels and Watson provided to their teams at a fraction of the cost. McKie and Williams were a waste of money, but the Lakers didn't sink a whole lot of money into them. They were decent insurance policies. Anderson played more games than McKie, but my impression is that McKie was a great locker room guy and Derek Anderson wasn't. Farmar looks like a very good pick up. Daniels looks like a flop for Washington and he will be collecting some big bucks while past his prime. Watson is harder to assess, but he couldn't win a starting position on one of the worst teams in the league. Overall, I think Mitch made the right decision to settle for stop gaps at PG rather than sign Daniels or Watson to a big dollar contract that they couldn't play up to.
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I added later:
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Mike@LG wrote:
MLE could've been used elsewhere to improve the roster talent...
On who? The other players who signed for the MLE were Stromile Swift, Jerome James and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. The Lakers never really had a chance at SAR, Swift has been a disappointment and James may be the worst MLE signing ever.
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I added later:
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Per 40 minutes stats for last season:
Smush
14.8 ppg on 43.6% shooting, 36.5% on 3's, 3.4 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.9 stls, 2.5 TO

Watson
13.5 ppg on 38.3% shooting, 32.9% on 3's, 3.4 rebs, 8.1 asts, 1.8 stls, 3.1 TO

Smush scored more points per minute with a better shooting percentage and with a better 3 pt percentage. The only statistic where Watson was superior to Smush was assists and you would expect a triangle PG to have much fewer assists than a traditional PG.

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