Comments on emplay's Examining the Numbers

Posted on LakersGround.net on 11/21/06.

I find team stats to be hard to analyze. For example, the Lakers have a +1.9 point differential and a 7-3 record while Boston has a +2.5 point differential and a 4-6 record. What does that mean? Two of Boston's wins were blowouts (by 26 and by 28). The biggest point differentials the Lakers have had were losses (16 to Seattle and 14 to Detroit). Averages for a small number of games could be badly skewed by one or two outliers.

When looking at team stats, I like to start with the number of FGA's. Right now, Laker opponents are shooting 5.2 times more than the Lakers (80.4 to 75.2). But the Lakers are outscoring their opponents 99.1 to 97.2 because they are averaging 1.32 points per shot (2nd in the NBA) to 1.21 for their opponents (the differential is tied for 2nd in the NBA). Why is that? Because the Lakers are committing less fouls than their opponents (21.3 to 25.1) and are therefore getting to the free throw line more often (29.2 to 24.1). Getting to the free throw line a lot will decrease your shot attempts and increase you points scored, both of which improve your points per shot. Combine that with the Lakers high effective field goal percentage (5th in NBA) and you get an excellent Point Per Shot statistic.

The Lakers are also getting less shots than their opponents because of their turnovers (18.7, 2nd worst in NBA). The Lakers give up the most steals (10.5) and have the worst steals differential in the NBA (-4.2, 2nd highest is -3). As steals tend to lead to high percentage shots, you would expect reducing the number of steals will decrease the opponents FG%.

Eric already touched on the Lakers' poor free throw shooting. The three main culprits are Kwame, Luke and Smush. Here are the Lakers in order of FT's per game:
Bryant - 8.8 at 85.7%
Odom - 5.4 at 83.3%
Bynum - 4.2 at 73.8%
Brown - 3.7 at 27.2%
Walton - 3.3 at 57.6%
Turiaf - 2.6 at 71.4%
Parker - 2.0 at 55.0%

So, hopefully the Lakers can easily improve by getting more comfortable with their offense (thus cutting down on steals) and having a few of their players improve their free throw shooting.