The death spiral begins

Posted on CelticsBlog.com on 1/10/06.

Losing begets more losing which begets yet more losing....

PP has grown frustrated with the losing and has started talking about a trade. Many fans blame the Celtics' poor record on the coach, Doc Rivers.

So the likely path becomes....
PP gets traded
...and no way do the Celtics get an equivalent player. At best, they will get some combination of picks, young talent with potential and salary cap relief.

Without PP, the Celtics lose more often and by wider margins
With PP, the Celtics are winning only 38% of their games. Without PP, I expect the Celtics win only about a third of their games, may be less.

The Celtic players tune Doc out
The players reading the writing on the wall and know that Doc is history. Also, all the listening to Doc got them was plenty of losses, so what can they learn from him?

The young players don't progress much
IMHO, a tremendous amount of what a player learns in the NBA occurs on the job. However, that learning only happens in close games. During blow outs, players don't play with the intensity that is require to really learn if this move is going to be successful.

Also, losing teaches players that they are going to lose. When an opponent goes on a run, the young players will hang their heads, "knowing" they are going to lose because they have seen it so many times before.

Finally, it's hard to build much enthusiasm to practice hard when you know you are going to lose. Doc won't be able to push the players because they are tuning him out.

Doc is fired
Maybe during this season, may be at the end of the season, but if the Celtics continue down their current path, Doc is gone

No good coach wants to coach in Boston
Who wants to coach a team you know is likely to lose big? The only candidates that will be interested in the job are guys who can't get an interview with teams that have a lot more talent.

Poor coaching, weak talent leads to more losing
Unless the Celtics are lucky enough to have their ping pong ball drawn, they aren't going to get enough talent in one draft to make a significant difference.

Losing cause the young players to not progress much
See my earlier section on this topic

The losing continues until the team acquires through the draft enough talent to be competitive again
The last time the Celtics got caught in this cycle, they had 8 straight seasons of 36 wins or less. It looks to me that unless they get things back on track soon, they could be entering another period of prolonged losing.