Mitch's drafting compared to other GM's

Posted on LG.net on 12/9/05.

I have seen many, many people complain about Mitch's drafting. "He should have drafted Josh Howard instead of Cook!" "He should have drafted Chris Duhon instead of Sasha!" These complainers don't see to realize that drafting is not an exact science and that even the best of GM's frequently miss the best player. So, I thought I would develop some method of numerically assessing how good each draft pick was and then compare Mitch's performance in the 2001 to 2004 drafts to GM's with a similar tenure. The reason for the 2001 to 2004 range is that Madsen was West's last pick in 2000 and it is way too early to assess any 2005 picks. Ideally, we would wait three years to assess any draft pick, but Mitch's tenure is too short to wait that long.

Here's my GM rating (best to worst):
+9.0 - Billy King of Philadephia
+7.0 - Rod Thorn of New Jersey
+3.0 - Mitch Kupchak of the LA Lakers
+2.5 - Randy Pfund of Miami
+2.5 - Bryan Colangelo of Phoenix
+2.0 - Don and Donnie Nelson of Dallas
+1.0 - Indiana
+1.0 - Geoff Petrie of Sacramento
0.0 - Rick Sund of Seattle
-0.5 - Kevin McHale of Minnesota
-0.5 - RC Buford of San Antonio
-2.0 - Kiki Vandeweghe of Denver
-3.0 - Jerry West of Memphis
-3.0 - Kevin O'Connor of Utah
-4.0 - Carroll Dawson of Houston
-4.5 - Joe Dumar of Detroit
-5.0 - Elgin Baylor of LA Clippers
Note: these scores are imprecise due to weaknesses in the methodology

I expect for each pick in the draft order to net a certain level of talent. If a GM drafts better talent with lottery picks than another GM does with late first round picks, that GM isn't necessarily doing a better job. So, I defined what level of talent I expect with each pick, then I will give GM credit (positive points) or blame (negative points) if he the player he drafts turns out better or worse than I expected. Here is the scoring chart:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
      |        |        |        |        |        |  Deep  | Never  |
Pick  |All-Star|  Star  |Starter |Rotation| Bench  |  Bench | in NBA |
======|========|========|========|========|========|========|========|
1-2   |   1    |   0    |  -1    |  -2    |  -3    |  -4    |  -5    |
3-4   |   1.5  |   0.5  |  -0.5  |  -1.5  |  -2.5  |  -3.5  |  -4.5  |
5-8   |   2    |   1    |   0    |  -1    |  -2    |  -3    |  -4    |
9-12  |   2.5  |   1.5  |   0.5  |  -0.5  |  -1.5  |  -2.5  |  -3.5  |
13-16 |   3    |   2    |   1    |   0    |  -1    |  -2    |  -3    |
17-20 |   3.5  |   2.5  |   1.5  |   0.5  |  -0.5  |  -1.5  |  -2.5  |
21-24 |   4    |   3    |   2    |   1    |   0    |  -1    |  -2    |
25-28 |   4.5  |   3.5  |   2.5  |   1.5  |   0.5  |  -0.5  |  -1.5  |
29-32 |   5    |   4    |   3    |   2    |   1    |   0    |  -1    |
33-40 |   5.5  |   4.5  |   3.5  |   2.5  |   1.5  |   0.5  |  -0.5  |
41+   |   6    |   5    |   4    |   3    |   2    |   1    |   0    |
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The columns mean the following:

• All-Star - Selected as an All-Star
  
• Star - Not an All-Star, but one of the team's two best players
  
• Starter - Not a star, but starts when not injured
  
• Rotation - Plays when not injured, gets 15 - 24 mpg
  
• Bench - Plays 10 - 15 mpg, occasionally has a DNP-CD
  
• Deep Bench - Gets erratic minutes, will generally play in the NBA three seasons or less
  
• Never in NBA - Never made it on to to his team's roster

I would categorize the Lakers' roster:

• All-Star - Bryant
  
• Star - Odom
  
• Starters - Brown, Mihm, Parker
  
• Rotation - Walton, Cook, Vujacic, George
  
• Bench - Profit
  
• Deep Bench - Bynum, Wafer, Green, McKie, Medvedenko

For 2002 to 2004 picks, I used how the player is performing this season for the team that drafted him. For 2001 picks, the evaluation is based upon their current year or fourth year performance for the team that drafted him. This is because I think should evaluate draft picks after they have played three years.

Oh yeah - what matters is how the player did on the team that drafted him. The fact that George Lynch went on to be a starter on other teams doesn't change the fact that he didn't do well as a Laker draft pick. If a team lets a draft pick walk, then "Deep Bench" is the highest the pick can be rated. Keep in mind that drafting is just one part of a GM's job, but it's the part fans usually focus on.

Trades
Trades make evaluating a draft pick very difficult. Do you evaluate the player based on how they are performing with the team they wound up with? To me, how they are doing somewhere else doesn't tell you about the value the player is providing to the team that drafted him. Do you rate what the team get in return for the player? In that case, you are combining evaluating the GM's trading skill with his drafting skill. For example, let's say a GM drafted a bust then traded him for an All-Star. Was that a good draft pick or bad? I would say bad. What I am doing is for players that played several seasons for the team, use their performance when traded. If a player didn't play long for a team, I use what the team received in trade.

Alternatives considered
Rating players how they did regardless of their team
Mehmet Okur was an absolute steal at #38. However, Detroit didn't recognize that and let him go as a free agent. Does his stellar play in Utah redeem the pick? Some think yes, but I don't

Adjusting scores for C's, PF' and PG's
Centers are extremely hard to draft. SG's and SF's are relatively easily. I am thinking of add a point for Centers that earn at least a Bench rating and 0.5 points for PF's and PG's that make at least a Bench rating.

Seeing how each pick rated out of the available talent
For each draft pick, assess all of the players taken after that pick and how well the player ranked relative to the other players. For example, Chris Duhon would have better a pick that Sasha, but Sasha was the second best option. To do this would require evaluate and rank every player drafted for 4 years, which is more work than I want to do.

Evaluations
Mitch's picks and my scoring of them:
2001
No picks
2002
Kareem Rush (20) - Deep Bench (-1.5)
2003
Brian Cook (24) - Rotation (1)
Luke Walton (32) - Rotation (2)
2004
Sasha Vujacic (27) - Rotation (1.5)
Marcus Douthit (56) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
+3

Tenures to short to evaluate
Billy Knight of Atlanta (2 seasons)
Danny Ainge of Boston (2 seasons)
Bernie Bickerstaff of Charlotte (1 season)
John Paxson of Chicago (2 seasons)
Danny Ferry of Cleveland (<1 season)
Chris Mullin of Golden State (1 season)
Larry Harris of Milwaukee (2 seasons)
Jeff Bower of New Orleans (<1 season)
Isiah Thomas of New York (2 seasons)
Dave Twardzik of Orlando (<1 season)
John Nash of Portland (2 seasons)
Rob Babcock of Toronto (1 season)
Ernie Grunfeld of Washington (2 seasons)

Don and Donnie Nelson's picks (Dallas) and my scoring of them:
2001
Kyle Hill (43) - Never in NBA (0)
2002
Mladen Sekularac (54) - Never in NBA (0)
2003
Josh Howard (29) - Star (4)
Note: Drafted Xue Yuyang (57), but immediately traded rights
2004
Pavel Podkolzin (21) - Never in NBA (-2) Note: Acquired in draft day trade and played 5 games in NBA
Traded draft rights for low second rounds picks
Overall Score
+2

Kiki Vandeweghe's picks (Denver) and my scoring of them:
2001
Wasn't GM at time of draft
2002
Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5) - Deep Bench (-3)
Nene Hilario (7) - Rotation (-1) Note: Acquired in draft day trade
Vincent Yarbrough (33) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2003
Carmelo Anthony (3) - Star (0.5)
Sani Becirovic (46) - Never in NBA (0)
Xue Yuyang (57) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Acquired in draft day trade
2004
Traded rights to Jameer Nelson in draft day deal
Overall Score
-2

Joe Dumar's picks (Detroit) and my scoring of them:
2001
Rodney White (9) - Deep Bench (-2.5)
Mehmet Okur (38) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2002
Tayshaun Prince (23) - Starter (2)
2003
Darko Milicic (2) - Deep Bench (-4)
Carlos Delfino (25) - Deep Bench (-0.5)
Andreas Glyniadakis (58) - Never in NBA (0)
2004
Rickey Paulding (54) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
-4.5

Carroll Dawson's picks (Houston) and my scoring of them:
2001
Eddie Griffin (7) - Deep Bench (-3) Note: Acquired draft day trade
2002
Yao Ming (1) - All-Star (0.5)
Bostjan Nachbar (15) - Deep Bench (-2)
Tito Maddox (38) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2003
Malick Badiane (44) - Never in NBA (0)
2004
Vassilis Spanoulis (50) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Acquired draft day trade
Overall Score
-4

Indiana Pacer's picks and my scoring of them:
2001
Jamison Brewer (40) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2002
Fred Jones (14) - Rotation (0)
2003
James Jones (49) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2004
David Harrison (29) - Deep Bench (0)
Overall Score
+1

Elgin Baylor's picks (Clippers) and my scoring of them:
2001
Traded away draft rights to Tyson Chandler
2002
Chris Wilcox (8) - Rotation (-1)
Melvin Ely (12) - Deep Bench (-2.5)
Traded away rights to Mario Kasun (41)
2003
Chris Kaman (6) - Starter (0)
Sofoklis Schortsanitis (34) - Never in NBA (-0.5)
2004
Shaun Livingston (4) - Has been injured all season. Estimate: Rotation (-1.5)
Lionel Chalmers (33) - Deep Bench (0.5)
Overall Score
-5

Jerry West's picks (Memphis) and my scoring of them:
2001
Wasn't GM yet
2002
Drew Gooden (4) - Difficult to evaluate because traded mid-rookie season in a multi-player deal. Estimate: Starter (-0.5)
Robert Archibald (32) - Deep Bench (0)
2003
Troy Bell (16) - Deep Bench (-2) Note: Acquired draft day trade
Dahntay Jones (20) - Deep Bench (-1.5) Note: Acquired draft day trade
2004
Andre Emmett (35) - Deep Bench (0.5) Note: Acquired draft day trade
Antonio Burks (36) - Deep Bench (0.5) Note: Acquired draft day trade
Segei Lishouk (49) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
-3

Randy Pfund's picks (Miami) and my scoring of them:
2001
Ken Johnson (49) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Actually played 2 games
2002
Caron Butler (10) - Difficult to evaluate because traded twice. Estimate: Starter (0.5)
Rasual Butler (53) - Bench (2)
2003
Dwayne Wade (5) - All-Star (2)
Jerome Beasley (33) - Never in NBA (-0.5) Note: Actually played 2 games
2004
Dorell Wright (19) - Deep Bench (-1.5)
Albert Miralles (47) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Acquired draft day trade
Matt Freije (53) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Was waived by Heat before playing and played one game for Orlando
Overall Score
+2.5

Kevin McHale's picks (Minnesota) and my scoring of them:
2001
No draft picks
2002
Marcus Taylor (52) - Never in NBA (0)
2003
Ndudi Ebi (26) - Deep Bench (-0.5)
Rick Rickert (55) - Never in NBA (0)
2004
Blake Stepp (58) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
-0.5

Rod Thorn's picks (New Jersey) and my scoring of them:
2001
Richard Jefferson (13) - Star (2)
Jason Collins (18) - Starter (1.5)
Brandon Armstrong (23) - Deep Bench (-1)
Brian Scalabrine (35) - Rotation (2.5)
2002
Nenad Krstic (24) - Starter (2)
Tamar Slay (54) - Deep Bench (1)
2003
Zoran Planinic (22) - Deep Bench (-1)
Traded rights to Kyle Korver (51)
2004
Traded rights to Viktor Khryapa (22)
Christian Drejer (51) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
+7
Note: I think Thorn has been the worst GM in the league since after the 2002 draft. See here for details.

Billy King's picks (Philadephia) and my scoring of them:
2001
Samuel Dalembert (26) - Starter (2.5)
Damone Brown (37) - Deep Bench (0.5)
Alvin Jones (57) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2002
Traded rights to Jiri Welsch
Sam Clancy (45) - Never in NBA (0)
2003
Willie Green (41) - Deep Bench (1)
Traded rights to Paccelis Morlende (50)
Kyle Korver (51) - Starter (4)
2004
Andre Iguodala (9) - Starter (0.5)
Overall Score
+9

Bryan Colangelo's picks (Phoenix) and my scoring of them:
2001
Alton Ford (51) - Deep Bench (1)
2002
Amare Stoudemire (9) - All-Star (2.5)
Casey Jacobsen (22) - Deep Bench (-1)
2003
Zarko Cabarkapa (17) - Deep Bench (-1.5)
Leandrinho Barbosa (28) - Rotation (1.5) Note: Acquired draft day trade
2004
No Draft Picks
Overall Score
+2.5

Geoff Petrie's picks (Sacramento) and my scoring of them:
2001
Gerald Wallace (25) - Deep Bench (-0.5)
Maurice Jeffers (55) - Never in NBA (0)
2002
Corsley Edwards (58) - Never in NBA (0) Note: played for Hornets in '04-'05 season
2003
None
2004
Kevin Martin (26) - Rotation (1.5)
Ricky Minard (47) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
+1

RC Buford's picks (San Antonio) and my scoring of them:
2001
Wasn't GM yet
2002
Wasn't GM yet
2003
No Draft Picks
2004
Beno Udrih (28) - Deep Bench (-0.5)
Romain Sato (52) - Never in NBA
Overall Score
-0.5

Rick Sund's picks (Seattle) and my scoring of them:
2001
Vladimir Radmanovic (12) - Rotation (-0.5)
Earl Watson (40) - Deep Bench (0.5)
2002
Peter Fehse (49) - Never in NBA (0)
2003
Nick Collison (12) - Rotation (-0.5)
Luke Ridnour (14) - Starter (1)
Paccelis Morlende (50) - Never in NBA (0) Note: Acquired draft day trade
2004
Robert Swift (12) - Rotation (-0.5)
David Young (41) - Never in NBA (0)
Overall Score
0

Kevin O'Connor's picks (Utah) and my scoring of them:
2001
Raul Lopez (24) - Deep Bench (-1)
Jarron Collins (53) - Rotation (3)
2002
Curtis Borchardt (18) - Deep Bench (-1.5) Note: Acquired draft day trade
2003
Aleksandar Pavlovic (19) - Deep Bench (-1.5)
Maurice Williams (47) - Deep Bench (1)
2004
Kris Humphries (14) - Bench (-1)
Kirk Snyder (16) - Deep Bench (-2)
Overall Score
-3